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Author Topic: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions  (Read 23482 times)

RalphH

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"Two things are infinite, the Universe and human stupidity... though I am not completely sure about the Universe" ...Einstein as related to F.S. Perls.

wildmanyeah

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2020, 03:25:26 PM »

It’s a nothing burger, I’ll continue to go to work as usual, send my kids to school as usual and have the few people I normally have over as usual

There trying to get the case count down before everyone starts to travel around the province for Christmas
« Last Edit: November 07, 2020, 03:27:31 PM by wildmanyeah »
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poper

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2020, 05:07:14 PM »

They said 2 weeks when Covid first hit us, this will be on way after Christmas is my guess.
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clarki

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2020, 06:24:20 PM »

I’ll continue to...have the few people I normally have over as usual
Then you would be violating a PHO order and breaking the law then, wouldn’t you?
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Dubs604

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2020, 06:29:43 PM »

Yeah this sucks. I’ve been leaning on my folks to watch the little one while I work from home. Looks like I’ll be trying to balance child care and work again like the early days of the pandemic.  :(

I don’t blame Dr. Henry for taking this action. Our numbers are way out of control right now. Only a matter of time before our health care system would be equally out of control.
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Knnn

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2020, 09:52:56 PM »

How tragic.  Science and reasoning has left the room.

There is now overwhelming and irrefutable evidence that lock downs do little or no good and when the societal impacts are measured the cure causes far more harm than the disease.

There is no second wave.  Well not anything different than what happens every year at this time of year.  The pandemic is over, all we are seeing now is the normal seasonal endemic increase in case numbers that occurs with all respiratory viruses. 

One look at the fatality ratio seen in Sweden tells all.  While the case numbers are climbing (not exponentially as in a pandemic, but following a normal endemic increase) the deaths are relatively small, see below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eJuj0rx-48

This is in a country that has never had a lock down.

The risk of our health care system spiraling out of control is now very small.  It's telling that all we hear about is increasing case numbers but not the ICU or fatality ratio.

The risk that more people will die from lack of prompt medical attention, not getting their chemo on time, not going to emergency with chest pains  or committing suicide is likely to be higher than COVID deaths.





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Fish Assassin

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2020, 10:20:32 PM »

^^^

The pandemic is over ?? Really ?? Has Donald Trump moved to Canada ? We're rounding the curve................ blah, blah, blah
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wildmanyeah

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2020, 10:53:04 PM »

Yeah this sucks. I’ve been leaning on my folks to watch the little one while I work from home. Looks like I’ll be trying to balance child care and work again like the early days of the pandemic.  :(

I don’t blame Dr. Henry for taking this action. Our numbers are way out of control right now. Only a matter of time before our health care system would be equally out of control.

Your parents are exempt if they are your care givers for your children
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wildmanyeah

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2020, 11:03:04 PM »

They said 2 weeks when Covid first hit us, this will be on way after Christmas is my guess.

Will have stricter measures by Christmas as this will do F all. Bonny said she don’t believe ive in regional orders and used the Kelona outbreak as An example. These orders or to satisfy the Fraser health public health officers.
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RalphH

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2020, 11:26:36 AM »

How tragic.  Science and reasoning has left the room.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eJuj0rx-48

This is in a country that has never had a lock down.



Sweden has  2x more covid cases per capita , than Canada.

Sweden  - about 11.46 cases per thousand

Canada - about 6 cases per thousand

Sweden has a lower death rate per capita but the death rate per infections is about the same (4%)
« Last Edit: November 11, 2020, 08:41:47 AM by RalphH »
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Roderick

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2020, 12:56:19 PM »

You lost me there Ralph...

Sweden 11.46 X 0.04 = 0.4584 deaths per thousand

Canada 6 X 0.04 = 0.24 deaths per thousand

Your statement "Sweden has a lower death rate per capita" is false if your other statement, "the death rate per infections is about the same (4%)", is true.   
Or it could be the other way around of course... but both your statements can't be true if your numbers are correct. 
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Roderick

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2020, 01:36:17 PM »

Did a little number crunching from the internet. (November 8th, 2020)

Sweden  1450 cases and ~60 deaths per 100k (and 4.1% death rate per case)
Canada 697 cases and ~27 deaths per 100k  (and 4% death rate per case)
BC 347 cases and  ~5.4 deaths per 100k (and 1.6% death rate per case)
USA 2963 cases and ~71 deaths per 100k (and a 2.4% death rate per cases)

Personally I think we should continue to do what Dr. Bonnie Henry says.

« Last Edit: November 08, 2020, 01:47:39 PM by Roderick »
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Knnn

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2020, 02:26:19 PM »

^^^
The pandemic is over ?? Really ?? Has Donald Trump moved to Canada ? We're rounding the curve................ blah, blah, blah

Hey FA, yes the exponential growth of a new virus is over, we are now in the endemic phase of the corona virus' life cycle where it establishes a permanent position in infected populations and will follow a normal seasonal variation in respiratory tract infections along with other similar diseases like influenza, etc.  I did not wish to imply that it was over and gone for good.  Just that it does not pose the same uncertain risks as it did during the initial pandemic.  There is no reason to believe it will not follow the same seasonal patterns that have clearly been established by all other similar virus, i.e increase during the winter and decline in the summer.
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RalphH

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2020, 02:38:25 PM »

almost all the info on line deals with actual infections and deaths and doesn't factor in population. Canada has a population of 37 million and Sweden 10 million.

I looked at these 2 websites:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/


If everything is equal between the 2 Canada should have experienced about 4 times the number of infections as Sweden yet the numbers are 146,461 for Sweden vs 263,317 for Canada.

It's not hard to figure out that Sweden's performance is overall in terms of cases per thousand is close to double that of Canada.

Their death rate among those infected is lower possibly because a so many of the cases in the first wave in Canada were among the very old.

Many geographic and cultural factors could explain why different countries have different experiences with covid 19 but overall there is no evidence that the Public health orders used in Canada have not been effective assuming Sweden has not adopted similar approaches to infection control
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"Two things are infinite, the Universe and human stupidity... though I am not completely sure about the Universe" ...Einstein as related to F.S. Perls.

Roderick

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2020, 03:47:27 PM »

Hey FA, yes the exponential growth of a new virus is over

Have you even looked at the numbers? The number of daily new cases continues to trend upwards which is the definition of exponential growth.  Endemic is not a "life cycle phase". it simply means that the virus is present in the population and isn't new or coming from somewhere else. 

There's another word you might be interested in. An epidemic is when an endemic or novel virus starts to grow exponentially, usually in a localized region.  If this then spreads around the world it's called a pandemic.   

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Just that it does not pose the same uncertain risks

lol Ya now we are certain that this virus is airborne and at least 40 times deadlier them influenza. 
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