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[Knnn]

Have you even looked at the numbers? The number of daily new cases continues to trend upwards which is the definition of exponential growth.  Endemic is not a "life cycle phase". it simply means that the virus is present in the population and isn't new or coming from somewhere else. 

There's another word you might be interested in. An epidemic is when an endemic or novel virus starts to grow exponentially, usually in a localized region.  If this then spreads around the world it's called a pandemic. 

While cases have been increasing, there is certainly no exponential growth in cases, which is the quantity growing and an increasing rate of growth.   The number of cases is also impacted by the number of tests and therefore does not provide a metric to assess the risk posed by the virus. 

Please take a look at page 5 of the British Columbia Weekly COVID-19 Surveillance Report updated to October 8:

http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/BC_Surveillance_Summary_Oct_08_2020_final.pdf

Case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths had all leveled off.  There has been no exponential growth in any of these metrics, even with the huge increase in number of people being tested compared to the earlier in the year.






 

[RalphH]

Exponential growth is the  growth of a bacteria etc by an exponential factor. Each growth factor at least doubles  per generation - 2x to 4x to 8x etc. When graphed they have an exponential curve that can be described by an exponential function such and rise with a growing curve trending towards a 90 degree vertical line.

It is important not to confuse the growth of a bacteria or virus population in a host such as a petrie dish with the growth of infected agents such as the inventory of petrie dishes in a lab.

[Roderick]

Sigh... the very first line of your link says the number of weekly new cases are increasing each week... 846 compared to 647 last week.  If the trend continues in to next week the number of new cases next week would be 1106 and the week after that 1438 and after that 1869 and then 2430 new cases per week etc

At this rate new cases double in less then 3 weeks. 

That's exponential growth... get it?

[Dubs604]

Your parents are exempt if they are your care givers for your children

You’re right!  Thank you!  It wasn’t clear in the order, but several news outlets have said that it doesn’t apply to child care.

[sumasriver]

You’re right!  Thank you!  It wasn’t clear in the order, but several news outlets have said that it doesn’t apply to child care.

Non household immediate family members can see each other.at home / restaurant / or outdoors....... but not have a gathering.....

Clear as mud.......   

[clarki]

Sigh... the very first line of your link says the number of weekly new cases are increasing each week... 846 compared to 647 last week.  If the trend continues in to next week the number of new cases next week would be 1106 and the week after that 1438 and after that 1869 and then 2430 new cases per week etc

At this rate new cases double in less then 3 weeks. 

That's exponential growth... get it?

Don’t sigh too heavily. Your reasoning is flawed.

You previously stated that an upward trend is the definition of exponential growth.  That’s not so. An upward trend just indicates growth. Could be linear, could be exponential.

Secondly, you can’t just look at a snapshot of two data points (846 and 647) (from a month ago too!) and infer exponential growth. Get it? 😀

The data from late August to mid/late October demonstrates linear growth. Having said that, the growth in weeks 43 and weeks 44 (ending Oct 31) and the daily numbers reported since might indicate exponential growth. Time will tell. Will Dr Bonnie’s measures flatten the curve? Time will tell.

[Hike_and_fish]

Testing seems to be flawed. Has BC finally received these fake test kits ? There are a LOT of people speaking up about faulty test results. My mother is one of them. 62 years old, works in a care home and HAS to be tested regularly. She's received a positive test result on three separate tests. Two of those tests were 14 days apart. The last test was 5 days after the last test. All three positive and no sign of any sickness in her. The local social media is full of people with similar stories. One person talked about not being swabbed and receiving a positive result.

[bobby b]

What is with all the Trump like denials on here. What a bunch of self righteous ignorant louts

BTW...
Hospitalizations ARE up.

I just spent the last half hour trying to console one of my students that had his mother pass away just 5 days after being tested positive and now his older brother is in ICU ....  is that just normal seasonal event!? So tell me was that test flawed Hike and Fish, should his family just ignore test results and listen to you guys pontificating on subjects that you are completely out of you depth on?

[Barbelface]

I lost my father to Covid Pneumonia back in June. He had two tests while in hospital care (UK), both of which came back negative. All told at least 15 of my family members that live in the North of England have had the virus, two of which (under 40 yr old healthy adults) have lasting long covid symptoms.

My buddy in California lost both his parents within 3 days of each other back in August...

Many people still claim that seasonal influenza kills more people, however in my 49 years on earth I have never personally known anyone who died of seasonal flu...

[Hike_and_fish]

What is with all the Trump like denials on here. What a bunch of self righteous ignorant louts

BTW...
Hospitalizations ARE up.

I just spent the last half hour trying to console one of my students that had his mother pass away just 5 days after being tested positive and now his older brother is in ICU ....  is that just normal seasonal event!? So tell me was that test flawed Hike and Fish, should his family just ignore test results and listen to you guys pontificating on subjects that you are completely out of you depth on?

I'm saying some tests are faulty. Don't lump me into some paranoid conspiracy. I am simply explaining that my family has first hand experience of faulty tests. So pound sand pal and get off my back.

[bobby b]

Your words do nothing but try to sow mistrust... 'Flawed' 'Fake test kits'.  There may very well be some false positives, but the way you state it is just another siren call like ' A lot of people are saying' ... remind you of anyone..

Pound yer own sand

[RalphH]

Barbelface I am very sorry for your loss, both your story and bobby b's show the pain and loss from covid is real and the Public Health Directives are necessary to save lives and reduce suffering. Many people who recover my Covid will have to live reduced lives due to the permanent damage the disease can do.

'False' test results - really results that are erroneous are unavoidable. Most tests are biased to false positives on the assumption that's a better than a false negative. Current covid tests are known and it has been well discussed in public, to yield a relatively high % of false results. People with symptoms but negative swabs are advised to self isolate for 14 days regardless of the result which can be wrong something like 30% of the time IIRC.

BTW I had my own experience with a false positive for cancer. I had unnecessary surgery as a result for what turned out to be benign growths.

[VAGAbond]

Talked to a neighbor acquaintance the other day.  He has lost three siblings to the virus.  All were previously healthy individuals in their 50s.  The first brother to go down was dead in 16 days from first symptoms.

Read about the younger people who have ‘recovered’ but become what are called ‘long haulers’ that have persisting difficulty with brain function, lungs and heart.

This virus is nothing to be taken casually.

[Roderick]

Right then lets look at the actual numbers of new cases in BC vs. my guesstimate.

By week:
my guesstimate was: 647           And the actual was: 647        Total actual cases: 9220
                                846                                         846                                  10066
                                1106                                       968                                  11034
                                1438                                       1520                                12544
                                1869                                       1827                                14381
                                2430                                       2768                                17149


This shows that the total number of cases is increasing at an increasing rate, ie. exponential.

[big_fish]

Right then lets look at the actual numbers of new cases in BC vs. my guesstimate.

By week:
my guesstimate was: 647           And the actual was: 647        Total actual cases: 9220
                                846                                         846                                  10066
                                1106                                       968                                  11034
                                1438                                       1520                                12544
                                1869                                       1827                                14381
                                2430                                       2768                                17149


This shows that the total number of cases is increasing at an increasing rate, ie. exponential.

huh? actually if you plot those numbers out, the graph is linear....