From FN 0597 (July 13):

"...To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one

in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below

8,423,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four

chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above

22,937,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning

purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal

chance of a higher or lower return) of 13,981,000 fish for all management

groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 13.7 million. The largest

contributing stocks for the 2018 return are expected to be the Late Shuswap,

Chilko, Quesnel, and Early Shuswap...."

From today's updates:

"...Currently the Early Summer group is tracking below the p50 forecast of 2,155,000...."

"... Assessments for the Summer-run group are ongoing and are looking as large as or larger than the p50 forecast of 4,344,000...."