Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[bbronswyk2000]

Looks like no sockeye opening for the long weekend. They just had a blurb on the morning news about it saying that only 30,000 fish have come through so far.

[Shooter]

just curious... what do they base their estimate of returning fish on?  is it based on the previous cycle return numbers or is there some other equation that they use to estimate returning numbers? 

[Stratocaster]

For preliminary estimates (before the season starts).  They use the historical cycle year info of the stocks that make up the run for this year, the number of returning adults in the brood year of this run, and the number of outmigrating smolts applicable to this run.  From there they calculate a probability scale i.e. 50% chance of x number returning.  The higher the % the more conservative the numbers.

When the season begins, they use test fishery data to estimate the actual numbers returning.  I've always wondered about how accurate this approach is.  In some states in the US, fishing is not allowed until they get a certain number of fish onto the spawning grounds or a certain number pass the counters.

[pepsitrev]

  looks like they are not going to let us on the river for sockeye on the long weekend like said in this post a while ago. heard on global not enough fish are comming in yet and with all the hot weather who knows what is going to happen  but i'm sure chris and rod will keep us up to date on any important issues for sure. tight lines and sharp hooks to all. cheers

[goblin59]

The numbers in the test fisheries don't seem to be improving at all. Sad to say that for the good of the future they would be better off keeping it closed, especially with the extremely warm water temperatures that the Fraser is going to have very soon.

[silverslab]

the fraser water seems already to be warmer

[warlo_527]

Looking at the 2005 season...the summer run came 2 weeks later than average...which was Aug 22 through area 20 waters. That was the year we had the opening on the Fraser in early September. So let's hope that they are coming in a bit late. But I agree that I think the run will be much lower than expected. But the water will not be getting any colder and then the more endangered late run sockeyes will be in the river...so it doesn't look great.

[BigFisher]

Looking at the 2005 season...the summer run came 2 weeks later than average...which was Aug 22 through area 20 waters. That was the year we had the opening on the Fraser in early September. So let's hope that they are coming in a bit late. But I agree that I think the run will be much lower than expected. But the water will not be getting any colder and then the more endangered late run sockeyes will be in the river...so it doesn't look great.

Wasnt that september opening 3 years ago, 2006?

[hotrod]

2006 opening was for the month of august til sept 5! Was a good year!

[jetboatjim]

I wonder if the natives are impacting the very few of these sockeye in the river now. gill nets dont discriminate between sockeye and chinook
I'm sure they release the sockeye they catch though....

[PistolPete]

Already had offers to buy fish (sockeye) about a month ago. They let them go right to the cooler............

[Steelhawk]

Like I mention in the other thread in the 'Fishing News/issue' section, the Port Alberni sockeye run was reported to be stronger than usual causing natives to dump excess unsold fish. The ocean conditions should not have hurt the Fraser run then. What else can contribute to such a drastic reduction in the Fraser return? You and I know the answer - the fish stocks were illiegally over-fished/poached and sold a few ago for big $$$ all along the Fraser. Greed is the main culprit here. I still remember the post Chris made in which he revealed a helicopter trip counting more than 700 nets set all along the lower Fraser. How can any fish stock survive that level of harvest. I hope that the real reason is that the fish is late like before. Otherwise the natives should have some soul searching to do how they had wiped out the salmon their forefathers have handed down to them to enjoy and to conserve as a show of their respect for the blessings of Heaven.

[Geff_t]

Like I mention in the other thread in the 'Fishing News/issue' section, the Port Alberni sockeye run was reported to be stronger than usual causing natives to dump excess unsold fish. The ocean conditions should not have hurt the Fraser run then. What else can contribute to such a drastic reduction in the Fraser return? You and I know the answer - the fish stocks were illiegally over-fished/poached and sold a few ago for big $$$ all along the Fraser. Greed is the main culprit here. I still remember the post Chris made in which he revealed a helicopter trip counting more than 700 nets set all along the lower Fraser. How can any fish stock survive that level of harvest. I hope that the real reason is that the fish is late like before. Otherwise the natives should have some soul searching to do how they had wiped out the salmon their forefathers have handed down to them to enjoy and to conserve as a show of their respect for the blessings of Heaven.

  Very well said steelhawk.

[Rodney]

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 28 to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser River sockeye runs and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

The marine migration of Fraser River sockeye over the past several days continues to be much lower than expected. The run size estimate of 264,000 Early Summer-run sockeye was decreased to 150,000 fish at the meeting today. It is too early to provide an in-season run size estimate for Summer-run sockeye; however, similar to Early Summer-run sockeye, their abundance is currently tracking considerably lower than forecast unless their marine timing is later than expected.

On July 27 the Fraser River discharge at Hope was approximately 4,100 cms, which is 14% lower than average for this date, while the water temperature at Qualark Creek was 19.8 0C, which is 2.6 0C higher than average for this date. Fraser River water temperatures are forecast to reach 21.7 0C by August 5. If this forecasted water temperature occurs, it will be the highest Fraser River water temperature in the data-set spanning almost 100 years. Water temperatures exceeding 20 0C may cause high pre-spawning mortality of Fraser River sockeye. All commercial fisheries in Panel Area waters remain closed to fishing at the present time.

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on July 31, 2009.

[dereke]

Ouch!