Still a few months away but any reports on the forecast or is it too early to even guess?
not sure if this has been posted but here is the pre-pre season forcast. Final version should come out late may
"Pink
Northern BC: Information is not available.
Southern BC: Fraser River pink salmon return in odd years, however, below average
returns are expected in 2017 based on fry outmigration from the Fraser River.
Opportunities for directed harvest will be based on in-season information. Local pink
abundances in other areas of Georgia Strait may provide opportunities for harvest. "
"Below average returns are expected in 2017 relative to the average of 13.4 million
(1959-2013). The 2015 brood year fry abundance for Fraser Pink Salmon (230
million) was half of the long-term average of 450 million fry (1975-2013). This CU
is comprised of 100% two year olds. (2015 Outlook Category was 4; 2016 Outlook
Category was ND)"
https://www.frafs.ca/sites/default/files2/Preliminary%202017%20Salmon%20Outlook%20Dec92016.pdfHere is a report about ocean conditions
http://www.psc.org/download/33/psc-technical-reports/8132/psc-technical-report-no-37.pdf5 Key messages
Although it is always difficult to generalize about salmon, a few key messages seemed to emerge from this
study:
• The ocean-climate events of 2014-2016, although extreme in the instrumental records and
widespread in the salmosphere, are likely to be ephemeral if this event is similar to what occurred
in 1997/98. It came and went without leaving permanent effects either positive or negative on
21
most salmon populations. The next one should occur around 2034.
• Where widespread changes (declines) in survival have occurred, as in salmon associated with the
Salish Sea, they began in the early 1990s and have persisted to the present. These are fundamental
changes that are not well understood but have lasting consequences.
• Extreme responses by salmon to ocean-climate extrema in 2015 and 2016 were coastwide and
diverse but varied among species and region. Some runs were the most abundant during the years
studied and some were the least abundant. More often than not, the salmon anomalies were in
behaviour as they navigated their way around the novel environment.
• Evidence of late-life mortality in salmon in the sea is relatively rare. Most of what occurred in the
last few years would have affected the juvenile salmon. Those with longer oceanic lives have yet to
“show their hand.” We have already seen the effects on pink salmon and coho salmon as they live
only one year at sea. Southeast Alaska pink salmon have been much below forecast for two years, as
was the case for the 2015 return to the Fraser River. Furthermore, the region-wide survival of coho
salmon in southern British Columbia was the lowest on record for the 2014 ocean entry year.
• On a more practical note, assembling a coast-wide perspective on ocean-climate environmental
variation and even developing new indices tailored to the salmosphere was easy. Doing the same
for salmon biology was not. The main difference is that agencies responsible for the former have
committed to collecting, organizing and distributing standard data products online to a diverse set
of clients in different regions/countries. It requires an interagency commitment that has yet to
occur in salmon biology, and may not be necessary if regional comparisons are not needed.
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Topic: Pink Run 2017 (Read 259537 times)