If the returns come in as per the forecast of 17 million it's not a record year; 2003, 2009, 2011 and 2013 were higher.
After the high test catches in the Area 12 Seine test fishery Aug 9-12, catches there have dropped off considerably from an average of 73k to 19k over the last 4 days not to mention Aug 17 & 18 when the catches were 385 and 9 respectively. The average of the last 5 days in the Area 20 Seine test fishery is 5.5k The last panel report was Aug 18th.
The fish at the Area 12 and 20 test sites have to swim to the mouth of the Fraser which takes them several days. Then they usual lay off the river for a time as their systems adjust to the Fraser water environment. Yet to be seen when they will enter the river in numbers.
When looking at the big years such as 2013 one thing I notice is that the big test fishery numbers continue well into late August and even into September. Area 12 average from Aug 24 to Sep 2 2013 the average was 39k.
Perhaps the spawn in the Fraser valley in 2021 didn't escape serious loss from the major flood as we hoped though the upper Fraser, Thompson and Seaton fish did.