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[RalphH]

...once upon a time I quite innocently asked if fly fishermen invented flossing, I think I lost my left nut over that one.

Well then be thankful you've still got one and be careful what you say.

Sockeye openings are managed by the PSC and they have several  test fisheries of all sorts all over the Gulf & Albion actually is not in that mix.

FWIW from what climatologists  and the obvious weather outside tells  us we've moved from an El Nino to a La Nina Ocean current regime which usually bodes well for most Salmonid species especially sockeye. Will it make a difference this year? We will see.

[Noahs Arc]

I'd pay money to watch Rieber fly fish with a 3oz Betty strapped on.

[DanL]

They have archived reports going back quite a few years if you are inclined to sift through them and see if forecasts for a particular year at all correlated with previous recreational opportunities.

Replying to my own post, there is a table in the 2016 report that summarizes the pre-season forecasts vs actual returns from 1998-2015:




From those 18 years:
 
8 years where the actual returns were actually somewhat close to the 50% probability forecast, including four straight years from 2011-2014.

2 years where the returns were significantly higher than the preseason forecast including the famous 2010.

8 years where the actual returns were significantly lower than the 50% preseason forecast, including the disastrous 2009 which I believe is what resulted in the Cohen Commission report. 2016 will probably get a red label in the next report as well.

It's interesting to see the 4 year dominant cycle returns of '98, '02, '06, '10, & '14 as I never really paid much attention to it. As someone noted above, the next dominant run is not until 2018.

Gazing into the crystal ball, 2017 returns are from the 2013 brood year which featured ~4-5M fish which appears to be about an average return for a non-dominant year, based on this chart.

Were there any recreational openings back in 2013? or in 2011 which also had a similar sized ~5M return? If not, then you can probably write off the upcoming season unless the forecast is significantly larger, or the returns are unexpectedly high. No comment as to how the openings might be influenced by the various special interest stakeholders.

[RalphH]

There was both sport and recreational openings in 2011 but not in 2013 due to high river temperatures.

[Rieber]

Hmmm - there will likely be no Sockeye for the rec/sport fisherman after the Commercial and Native allowances are made. I still better take that time off - just in case we get lucky.

[ribolovac02]

You sure like to $/it destarb , good luck flossing , if they do open the season .

[Rieber]

If they do open for Sockeye and don't have a leader restriction then I will use my Fraser drift rod and levelwind but I after getting a few, I would go out later in the opening with my spey. I haven't caught Sockeye on the spey and I really would like to on the next opening. That would be pretty cool.

[Blood_Orange]

Gazing into the crystal ball, 2017 returns are from the 2013 brood year which featured ~4-5M fish which appears to be about an average return for a non-dominant year, based on this chart.

Were there any recreational openings back in 2013? or in 2011 which also had a similar sized ~5M return? If not, then you can probably write off the upcoming season unless the forecast is significantly larger, or the returns are unexpectedly high.

Thanks for introducing some actual data into this thread. I have a love affair with tables full of data; bonus marks for colour-coding!

[RalphH]

Hmmm - there will likely be no Sockeye for the rec/sport fisherman after the Commercial and Native allowances are made. I still better take that time off - just in case we get lucky.

Usually if there is a commercial opening there is a sport opening. Sport openings tend to precede commercial openings by a few days for obvious reasons. 

[chris gadsden]

If they do open for Sockeye and don't have a leader restriction then I will use my Fraser drift rod and levelwind but I after getting a few, I would go out later in the opening with my spey. I haven't caught Sockeye on the spey and I really would like to on the next opening. That would be pretty cool.

Is not fly fishing for sockeye as good as flossing with a drift rod?

[Rieber]

Is not fly fishing for sockeye as good as flossing with a drift rod?

That's might be true for someone who knows how to use the Spey effectively in big rivers. Big river spey is still really new to me but I would like to experience Fraser Sockeye and Spring on the spey. Then there's the challenge of finding a bar that allows you to fly fish without a bouncer coming in between a couple fly guys. I'm certain a braided line bouncer could bugger a fly line in a hurry.

Meat fishing with the drift rod for Fraser Sockeye - no problem there - as long as we're gifted an opening. Mind you in years past the picking has been pretty slim compared to the gory years. Yes "gory" years. It used to be a blood bath out there with 150+ fishermen on the big bars - all ripping gills every few seconds. Oh the carnage.

Still cheaper to buy the Sockeye at the supermarket by the time you factor all the expenses if you have to travel to the river any distance.

[greyghost]

The square hook pattern I tie is really effective. The sockeye really hammer it when fished properly! Springs like it too! 

I named the pattern. The Alaskan Twist. 

[firstlight]

I like to buy about 10-12 fish and process them and get out of the way.
Leaves more time for golf.

[Rieber]

Looks like bottom bouncing gear is starting to come up for sale in anticipation for early Springs.

https://abbotsford.craigslist.ca/spo/5929745630.html

Local Shop helping the cause. 

[zap brannigan]

hopefully never opens again.