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[CohoJake]

This is the Fraser thread, right?    Anyway, I hope the Vedder is a mess this weekend, as I think most people will be blanked and will give up for a couple of weeks.  Thankfully there haven't been many inspiring pics on social media to get people out there.  I for one hope there are are enough pinks to make the coho less spooky but not enough to be a nuisance. 

And, yes, I agree, the big push of pinks in the Fraser right now is likely headed for upriver.  In my experience, the farther upriver the pinks travel, the earlier they enter the river.  I have caught and seen many pinks in Hope around this time in September.  Hopefully these pinks are full of an extra bit of spunk this year that gets them past the slide.

[wildmanyeah]

Lol how is pink closed look at the whonnack catch yesterday lol.

Crazy

[Hike_and_fish]

Lol how is pink closed look at the whonnack catch yesterday lol.

Crazy

902 in river sets yesterday. WOW !

[fic]

Hit another high yesterday Passage at Mission. 

31-Aug    125,100
01-Sep    131,900
02-Sep    273,200
03-Sep    472,500
04-Sep    656,000
05-Sep    671,600

Cumulative YTD passage is 2,957,600.  More than 1/2 way to the 5 Million estimate.  5 Million may be too low.

[wildmanyeah]

Its still possible the run could come under but its looking fairly unlikely, The marine catches did shut off like a light bulb. Its possible there is a large number in a short migration window.

even if we get something like this over the next 4 days

06-Sep    650 000
07-Sep    500 000
08-Sep    400 000
09-Sep    250 000

We will be pretty close to the 5 million mark so it sure does seem like we will pass it , Even if you assume today is the peak and it will peter off like it started we would be looking at 6 million fish and that does not include the fish the americans already caught.

[RalphH]

In 2013 the test fisheries stayed strong into the last half of Sept. The largest single day was Sept 19th at 601 for Whonnock. The Mission Hydroacoustic shows that the major push of fish up the river is now underway. The esitmates for the last couple of days are more than 10 times the daily average of the last 10 days of August.

Is it possible the marine test catches have underestimated the number of pinks?

[fic]

Is it possible the marine test catches have underestimated the number of pinks?

The fish got smart and migrated through at night when the boats were docked 

[wildmanyeah]

In 2013 the test fisheries stayed strong into the last half of Sept. The largest single day was Sept 19th at 601 for Whonnock. The Mission Hydroacoustic shows that the major push of fish up the river is now underway. The esitmates for the last couple of days are more than 10 times the daily average of the last 10 days of August.

Is it possible the marine test catches have underestimated the number of pinks?

I would say its very possible and still hearing about guys catching the odd pink in area 20.  Seines chase around schools, So they can be heroes or bust.  in 2013 the numbers sharply ended but if i recall i think they had the seine fleet out hammering them that was my experience on the water think catchers were still strong in river.  If you recall the seine catches last year over estimated the sockeye return.

seems stronger then the last two cycles, the south arm pinks really have slowed down so maybe we are seeing just one last big push but still think its going to be closer to 6 million then 5.

According to the PSC latest report they say the pink run was early this year Area 20 timing adopted in-season 17/Aug Area 20 timing expected pre-season  28/Aug

https://www.psc.org/download/598/2019/11882/august-30-2019.pdf

IT should also get updated today around 4pm so will see if they change things around.

[DanL]

In 2013 the test fisheries stayed strong into the last half of Sept.

That seems to be generally true every cycle. test fisheries typically start taking off about now (Labour Day) and start tapering off around/after the 3rd week of Sept.

I havent been following this year's numbers too closely but if it starts to wind down next week that would be very atypical compared to historical results.

If we're already at 3M and it follows the typically expected timing, the final numbers will be far above 5M. That would be nice to see for a change, as in recent years the various sockeye/pink returns seem to fall below the p50 far more often than they exceed it...

[fic]

Apparently these fish are not strong enough to make it pass that big rock slide.  They need to do many trips to haul these fish up in trucks.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/salmon-now-passing-through-fraser-river-slide-on-their-own-dfo-says-1.4579399

[wildmanyeah]

Interesting that they admit catches are above average but have not changed the run size and therefore there is no TAC for fisheries.


"Sockeye catches in the Fraser River gill net test fisheries have continued to
decline in recent days while Pink catches have remained above average with
highs of 362 on September 1 at Cottonwood and 737 on September 5 at Whonnock.
Due to the abundance of Pink salmon in-river the daily Sockeye escapement
estimates have been generated from the Whonnock test fishery catch information
rather than the normal hydroacoustic estimates since August 20. "



"During the Panel meeting today the run size for Pink salmon remained unchanged
at 5,000,000 with Area 20 timing of August 17. At this run size the
international TAC is reduced to a level where no additional US fisheries would
be considered. As well, given the uncertainty in the Pink run size, the limited
amount of commercial TAC identified is insufficient to initiate commercial or
recreational fisheries directed on Fraser Pink salmon in Canada. First Nations
fisheries for FSC purposes will continue to be considered at this time for Pink
salmon. Unless the Pink run size increases in the near future there will be no
directed commercial or recreational fisheries for Fraser Pink salmon this year.
The Pink run size will be reassessed on Tuesdays Panel call."

https://notices.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=225208&ID=all

[Hike_and_fish]

Interesting that they admit catches are above average but have not changed the run size and therefore there is no TAC for fisheries.


"Sockeye catches in the Fraser River gill net test fisheries have continued to
decline in recent days while Pink catches have remained above average with
highs of 362 on September 1 at Cottonwood and 737 on September 5 at Whonnock.
Due to the abundance of Pink salmon in-river the daily Sockeye escapement
estimates have been generated from the Whonnock test fishery catch information
rather than the normal hydroacoustic estimates since August 20. "



"During the Panel meeting today the run size for Pink salmon remained unchanged
at 5,000,000 with Area 20 timing of August 17. At this run size the
international TAC is reduced to a level where no additional US fisheries would
be considered. As well, given the uncertainty in the Pink run size, the limited
amount of commercial TAC identified is insufficient to initiate commercial or
recreational fisheries directed on Fraser Pink salmon in Canada. First Nations
fisheries for FSC purposes will continue to be considered at this time for Pink
salmon. Unless the Pink run size increases in the near future there will be no
directed commercial or recreational fisheries for Fraser Pink salmon this year.
The Pink run size will be reassessed on Tuesdays Panel call."

https://notices.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=225208&ID=all

Same as last cycle. It was slightly higher than the p50 and they never adjusted it. It's all politics.

[fic]

It would be awkward for the machines to count 6+ million and keep the official count at 5 million.   

[RalphH]

In 2017 the P50 was 8.7 million, the first in season forecast was 4.8 million then downgraded to 3.7 million a week later (Sept 8th) . Actual passage passed Mission was 3.4 million. TAC was about 200k.

[wildmanyeah]

In 2017 the P50 was 8.7 million, the first in season forecast was 4.8 million then downgraded to 3.7 million a week later (Sept 8th) . Actual passage passed Mission was 3.4 million. TAC was about 200k.

I did not mind sitting out the 2017 season as numbers we’re poor this yeah just not seeing it