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Author Topic: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices  (Read 63367 times)

wildmanyeah

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2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« on: July 10, 2018, 03:09:48 PM »

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Subject: FN0579-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 10, 2018

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 10, to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.   

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2018 Fraser River
sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel prior
to the season. The majority of sockeye returning in 2018 will be recruits from
adult spawners in 2013 and 2014 with the latter being the Adams River dominant
cycle line. DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye salmon forecasts for 2018
continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates and
uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a result of the warm blob
from 2013 to 2016 and the subsequent El Nino at the end of 2016 into early
2017.

To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
8,423,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above
22,937,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal
chance of a higher or lower return) of 13,981,000 fish for all management
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 13.7 million. The largest
contributing stocks for the 2018 return are expected to be the Late Shuswap,
Chilko, Quesnel, and Early Shuswap.

For 2018 pre-season planning purposes the Early Stuart and Chilko forecast
timing of July 2 and August 11 respectively were adopted by the Fraser Panel at
the June meeting in Suquamish, Washington. Timing for all other sockeye stocks
is based on historical correlations with the Early Stuart and Chilko timings
mentioned above. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River
sockeye salmon diverting their migration through Johnstone Strait is 56%. 
Given the recent high diversion rates on this cycle line through Johnstone
Strait the Panel chose to adopt the 1990-2017 median diversion rate of 63% for
planning purposes.

The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was well above average in
March and April of this year, however a warmer than normal spring resulted in
early snowmelt throughout the Fraser watershed resulting in well below average
snowpack by June. As such it is anticipated that water levels will be well
below average during the sockeye migration period. This combined with above
average forecast for air temperatures has resulted in a prediction of water
temperatures that will be above the historic mean for July and August. Actual
water temperatures and discharge levels will be monitored closely during the
2018 return to determine if migration issues are developing.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management
adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years,
Early Summer based on the historical median for dominant years only (2018
cycle) and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for all years.
Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer,
Summer and Late run management groups while the Early Stuart management group
will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER)
of 10%. There will be no in-season estimates of management adjustment for Early
Stuart in 2018 unless the run size is considerably larger than the median
forecast and generates TAC. It is anticipated they will be managed to the LAER,
with the expected outcome of a spawning escapement being below goal.

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 22 at Whonnock and July
2 at Qualark Creek.  The Area 20 gill net test fishery began today (July 10)
while Round Island and Cottonwood gill net test fisheries are planned to begin
on July 12th. During the first 10 days at Whonnock no sockeye were caught
however since July 2 sockeye catches have increased significantly with early
stock identification analyses indicating the majority of the sockeye being
Early Stuart and Chilliwack sockeye. In-season assessment of Early Stuart
sockeye will be provided later in July once more information becomes available.
In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after
identification of their peak migration through marine areas.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries
have been restricted by the 3 week Early Stuart window closure with limited
fishing opportunities in the Fraser River directed at Chinook salmon. The start-
up of sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated before mid to late July
depending upon location and will be based on the identification of sockeye TAC
for Early Summer or Summer run sockeye. FSC fishers in marine approach areas,
as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for the opening times and
any restrictions in their local area. Commercial and recreational fisheries are
not anticipated to begin until the end of July or early August once commercial
TAC has been identified.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Friday, July 13, 2018.

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wildmanyeah

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2018, 03:01:42 PM »

Subject: FN0597-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 13, 2018

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 13, to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.   

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2018 Fraser River
sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel prior
to the season. The majority of sockeye returning in 2018 will be recruits from
adult spawners in 2013 and 2014 with the latter being the Adams River dominant
cycle line. DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye salmon forecasts for 2018
continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates and
uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a result of the warm blob
from 2013 to 2016 and the subsequent El Nino at the end of 2016 into early
2017.

To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
8,423,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above
22,937,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal
chance of a higher or lower return) of 13,981,000 fish for all management
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 13.7 million. The largest
contributing stocks for the 2018 return are expected to be the Late Shuswap,
Chilko, Quesnel, and Early Shuswap.

For 2018 pre-season planning purposes the Early Stuart and Chilko forecast
timing of July 2 and August 11 respectively were adopted by the Fraser Panel at
the June meeting in Suquamish, Washington. Timing for all other sockeye stocks
was based on the difference between the 2018 Chilko forecast and the historical
median for Chilko (plus 1 day). The pre-season forecast of the proportion of
Fraser River sockeye salmon diverting their migration through Johnstone Strait
is 56%.  Given the recent high diversion rates on this cycle line through
Johnstone Strait the Panel chose to adopt the 1990-2017 median diversion rate
of 63% for planning purposes.

The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was well above average in
March and April of this year, however a warmer than normal spring resulted in
early snowmelt throughout the Fraser watershed resulting in well below average
snowpack by June. As such it is anticipated that water levels will be well
below average during the sockeye migration period. This combined with above
average forecast for air temperatures has resulted in a prediction of water
temperatures that will be above the historic mean for July and August. Actual
water temperatures and discharge levels will be monitored closely during the
2018 return to determine if migration issues are developing.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management
adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years,
Early Summer based on the historical median for dominant years only (2018
cycle) and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for all years.
Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer,
Summer and Late run management groups while the Early Stuart management group
will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER)
of 10%. There will be no in-season estimates of management adjustment for Early
Stuart in 2018 unless the run size is considerably larger than the median
forecast and generates TAC. It is anticipated they will be managed to the LAER,
with the expected outcome of a spawning escapement being below goal.

The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 12 was 17.3 Celsius which is
1.3 Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to
increase to 18.8 Celsius by July 18. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on
July 12 was 5,021 cubic meters per second which is 9% below the average
discharge for this date.

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 22 at Whonnock and July
2 at Qualark Creek while the Area 20 gill net test fishery began on July 10 and
the Round Island (Area 12) and Cottonwood gill net test fisheries began on July
12. Daily sockeye catches at Whonnock peaked at 29 on July 6 after which they
declined to 2 on July 11.  Stock identification analyses indicated the majority
of the sockeye to date have been Early Stuart with low levels of Nadina
starting to show. During the 3 days of test fishing in Area 20 sockeye catches
have increased from 74 on July 10 to 197 on the 12. Early Stuart sockeye is the
dominant stock in the stock ID samples taken on the 10 with low levels of Early
Summers (primarily Nadina) and a few Summer run (Harrison) sockeye.

In-season assessment of Early Stuart sockeye run size will be provided next
week once more information becomes available. Early information is suggesting
the run size of Early Stuart sockeye is tracking at or above the pre-season p50
forecast of 84,000.
In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally
occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine
areas.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries
have been restricted by the 3 week Early Stuart window closure with limited
fishing opportunities in the Fraser River directed at Chinook salmon. The start-
up of sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated before mid to late July
depending upon location and will be based on the identification of sockeye TAC
for Early Summer or Summer run sockeye. The Early Stuart window closure ends in
Marine waters on July 15 however the data to date does not indicate sufficient
strength in the Early Summer run to initiate fisheries at this time. The start
date for sockeye retention in marine areas will be considered following the
next Panel meeting on July 17.

FSC fishers in marine approach areas, as well as the Fraser River are requested
to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area.
Commercial and recreational fisheries are not anticipated to begin until the
end of July or early August once commercial TAC has been identified.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Tuesday, July 17, 2018.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 03:42:30 PM by wildmanyeah »
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Shinny

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2018, 08:37:26 AM »

I thought sockeye was already open to fish since they are for sale in Yale.  8)
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 09:43:41 PM by Shinny »
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Hike_and_fish

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2018, 10:02:07 AM »

I can recall two years ago at a store in Mission. A fellow who works at this store ( half FN ) is a nice guy and we will often talk about fishing from time to time. He offered to sell me Sockeye because quote " My family is overflowing with Salmon. We have so much every year we gift most of it away or sell it. I dont even eat Salmon. "

These situations happen every year. It used to bother me a lot but I realize that it is their constitutional right. What bothers be is I have to buy Sockeye in a store and bot be allowed to catch it myself. That bothers me.
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wildmanyeah

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2018, 06:25:41 PM »

Subject: FN0605-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 17, 2018

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 17, to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser Sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.   

The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 16 was 17.7 Celsius which is
1.2 Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to
increase to 18.5 Celsius by July 22. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on
July 16 was 4,283 cubic meters per second which is 20% below the average
discharge for this date.

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 22 at Whonnock and July
2 at Qualark Creek while the Area 20 gill net test fishery began on July 10 and
the Round Island (Area 12) and Cottonwood gill net test fisheries began on July
12. Daily Sockeye catches at Whonnock and Cottonwood have been steady at low
levels for the past several days with both showing an increased catch
yesterday.  In-river stock identification analyses indicated the majority of
the Sockeye to date have been primarily Early Stuart and Nadina (Early Summer)
Sockeye, with Nadina being on the increase.

Marine test fishery catches have fluctuated considerably in Area 20 while Area
12 has been on the increase. Stock identification samples show much higher
proportions of Early Stuart in Area 20 than in Area 12 in the most recent
samples (25% vs 7% respectively). Nadina is making up the largest portion of
the Area 20 samples at 37% and 47% in Area 12. Summer run stocks are beginning
to show in both approach routes while Late Shuswap comprised 17% of the small
Area 12 sample that was available. The current estimate for the diversion rate
through Johnstone Strait is estimated to be 35% based on the most recent 3 days
of catches in the Area 20 and 12 gill net test fisheries.

During the call today the Panel accepted the recommendation to increase the
Early Stuart run size to 106,000 with July 3 timing in Area 20 from the pre-
season p50 forecast of 84,000 and July 2 timing.
At this time it is too early
to make any predictions of the run size for Early Summers however the earlier
timed stocks appear to be tracking at or slightly above the p50 forecast or
they may be earlier than predicted.  In-season assessment of all run timing
groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration
through marine areas.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) Sockeye fisheries
have been restricted by the 3 week Early Stuart window closure with limited
fishing opportunities in the Fraser River directed at Chinook salmon. The start-
up of Sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated before mid to late July
depending upon location and will be based on the identification of Sockeye TAC
for Early Summer or Summer run Sockeye. The Early Stuart window closure ended
in Marine waters on July 15 with retention of Sockeye being delayed 4 days to
July 19with the expectation of a similar delay to the start-up of Fraser in-
river fisheries to provide additional protection to the earlier timed Early
Summer stocks which were not forecast to return in large numbers in 2018. The
strength in Early Summers is expected to be in the later timed South Thompson
Early Summer stocks.

FSC fishers in marine approach areas, as well as the Fraser River are requested
to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area.
Commercial and recreational fisheries are not anticipated to begin until the
end of July or early August once commercial TAC has been identified.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Friday, July 20, 2018.
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firstlight

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2018, 10:15:20 PM »

Any new reports on this fishery?
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BMo86

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2018, 11:00:28 PM »

Looks like the gong show starts August 6
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chris gadsden

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2018, 04:15:27 AM »

I thought sockeye was already open to fish since they are for sale in Yale.  8)
They are from a test fishery so it is legal.

CohoJake

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2018, 08:33:10 AM »

Any new reports on this fishery?
The last panel report from Tuesday confirmed that either the early summer runs are early or they are at the p75 level - a good return so far. 
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Shinny

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2018, 08:39:39 AM »

They are from a test fishery so it is legal.

I guess the unnamed band at the mouth of the Fraser selling spring for $6/lbs are also selling test fishery springs.  ::)
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fic

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2018, 10:54:08 AM »

Good to see the sockeye doing well this year. Hopefully the Fraser coho and pinks will also recover from last year's debacle.   Springs appear to be in decline, according to news outlets.
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RalphH

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2018, 04:13:52 PM »

Tuesday, July 24, 2018
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 24 to receive an update on the migration of Fraser sockeye and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

Assessments of Early Summer-run sockeye abundance are ongoing and run-size estimates should be available in early August after their peak migration through marine areas.

On July 23, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was approximately 3,794 cms, which is approximately 21% below average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 23 was 18.5 C, which is 1.2C above average for this date. Fraser River water temperatures are forecast to reach 19.6C over the next few days. Sustained water temperatures in this range can cause severe stress to migrating sockeye and may lead to significant en route mortality. Migration conditions for Fraser sockeye will be monitored closely over the next several weeks and appropriate management actions will be taken.

CANADIAN FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:
Remain closed to commercial fishing.

UNITED STATES FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:

TREATY INDIAN FISHERY:
Areas 4B, 5 and 6C: Open to drift gillnets 12:00 p.m. (noon), Friday, July 27, 2018, to 12:00 p.m. (noon) Tuesday, July 31, 2018.


NON INDIAN FISHERY:
Remains closed to fishing.
(Note: U. S. Non-Treaty fishers
 should check the U.S. hotline and WDFW regulations before
fishing as there are additional State of Washington regulations, including time restrictions that
may be in effect).

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, July 27, 2018.
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avid angler

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2018, 09:18:22 PM »

They are from a test fishery so it is legal.
A test fishery in Yale  ::)
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Every Day

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2018, 11:15:34 PM »

A test fishery in Yale  ::)

Yes. The Qualark hydro acoustic site at Yale relies on a test fishery once per day to determine the ratio of fish going past the array, since it's mostly impossible to do on the screen, besides for obviously large fish >20 pounds based on lengths (ie how many chinook vs how many sockeye - and on pink years, the ratio of sockeye/pink/Chinook). Dna and other information (lengths/weights,etc) is also taken to determine stocks and other valuable information if needed.

In this case, the Yale First Nations agreed to do the test fisheries in return for the fish (to do with as they please).
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avid angler

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Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2018, 01:08:08 AM »

Wow the more you know
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