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Author Topic: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates  (Read 55289 times)

Rodney

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Tuesday, July 11, 2017

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 11 to receive an update on the migration of Fraser River sockeye and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

Very few sockeye have been caught to-date in Fraser River sockeye test fisheries. The Whonnock gillnet test fishery began on June 28, the Qualark gillnet test fishery began on July 1 and the Area 20 gillnet test fishery began on July 7. The Qualark and Mission hydroacoustics programs began July 1 and July 7, respectively. Assessments will improve later this week with the addition of Cottonwood and Area 12 gill net test fisheries.

On July 10, the discharge of the Fraser River at Hope was 4,976 cms, which is approximately 13% below average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 10 was 17.30C, which is 1.50C higher than average for this date. Fraser River discharge levels and water temperatures will be monitored closely to determine if specific management actions are required during the in-river migratory period to help achieve sockeye escapement goals.

All Panel Area Waters remain closed to commercial salmon fishing.

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, July 14, 2017.

The first Weekly Report will follow the next scheduled Panel meeting.

http://www.psc.org/download/468/2017/8324/july-11-2017.pdf

Rodney

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2017, 09:56:12 AM »

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 11, to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.   

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2017 Fraser River
sockeye and pink salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser
Panel. The majority of sockeye returning in 2017 will be recruits from adult
spawners in 2012 and 2013 both of which were low for their respective cycle
lines. The pink salmon return is also coming off a very poor brood year
escapement in 2015. DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon
forecasts for 2017 are highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival
rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity.

To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
2,338,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above
8,873,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a
higher or lower return) of 4,432,000 fish for all management groups. This is
well below the cycle average of 8.5 million. The largest contributing stocks
for the 2017 return are expected to be the Chilko, Late Stuart, Stellako and
Harrison.

In the case of the pink forecast there is a one in four chance that the actual
number of returning pink salmon will be at or below 6,177,000 fish (the 25%
probability level forecast) and there is a one in four chance that the actual
number of returning sockeye will be at or above 12,353,000 fish (the 75%
probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Panel used
the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return)
of 8,693,000 pinks. This is well below the cycle average of 12.4 million.

For 2017 pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel adopted Area 20 run
timing for Early Stuart and Chilko sockeye of July 1 and August 6 respectively,
both of which are slightly earlier than the recent median timing for each
stock. Timing for all other sockeye stocks was based on historical correlations
with the Early Stuart and Chilko timings mentioned above. For pink salmon the
pre-season adopted Area 20 run timing of August 28 is the historical median.
The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye and pink
salmon diverting their migration to the Fraser River through Johnstone Strait
is 51% and 50% respectively, which the Fraser Panel also adopted for planning
purposes.

The snow pack volume in most of the Fraser River watershed was above average in
May and June of this year with recent warm weather since mid-June resulting in
a near normal timed freshet in 2017. As such it is anticipated that water
levels will be near or slightly above average during the sockeye and pink
migration periods. This combined with above average forecast for air
temperatures has resulted in a prediction of water temperatures that are likely
to be slightly above average for July and August. Actual water temperatures and
discharge levels as well as fish condition will be monitored closely during the
2017 return to determine if migration issues are developing.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management
adjustments for Early Summer, Summer and Late run sockeye that reflect the
forecast conditions based on the May to June information for Early Summer and
Summers and anticipated river entry dates for Late run fish. Management
adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels
and allowed to migrate upstream in an attempt to assist in achievement of
identified spawner objectives for the different run timing groups. In-season
information over the coming weeks will help to inform future decisions on
management adjustments for the Early Summer and Summer management groups while
the Early Stuart and Late run management groups will be managed based on the
respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) for each group (10% for Early
Stuart and 20% for Lates). There will be no in-season estimates of management
adjustment for Early Stuart sockeye in 2017 as the forecast returns are very
low across most of the forecast range and it is anticipated they will be
managed to the LAER, with the expected outcome of a spawning escapement well
below target.

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 28 at Whonnock and on
July 1 at Qualark Creek. In Area 20 the gillnet test fishery commenced
operations on July 7.  Very few sockeye have been caught to date with early
stock identification analyses indicating the majority of the sockeye being
Early Stuart and Chilliwack. In-season assessment of Early Stuart sockeye will
be provided later in July once more information becomes available. In-season
assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after
identification of their peak migration through marine areas.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries
have been restricted by a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and
early timed Early Summer stocks, with limited fishing opportunities directed at
chinook with non-retention of sockeye. The start-up of sockeye directed FSC
fisheries is not anticipated before late July or Early August depending upon
location and will be based on the identification of sockeye TAC for Early
Summers or Summers. FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser
River are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in
their local area.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Friday, July 15, 2017.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Jennifer Nener 604-666-0789
Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0644
Sent July 12, 2017 at 0944

wildmanyeah

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2017, 10:30:01 AM »

Typically Fraser river returns are similar to the skeena.  Skeena was horrible so, I don't think there will be an opening for Sockeye this year.  I also doubt the Diversion rate will be 50/50, in the past 3 years its been like 70/30 with them going for the colder inside waters.

Fraser Valley sport shops will be hurting
« Last Edit: July 12, 2017, 10:34:27 AM by wildmanyeah »
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wildmanyeah

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2017, 12:06:52 PM »

weekly report lots to read, no good news as expected


http://www.psc.org/download/469/2017/8327/july-14-2017-2.pdf


http://www.psc.org/publications/fraser-panel-in-season-information/fraser-river-panel-weekly-reports/

The forecasts for Fraser sockeye management groups expected in 2017 has been a dominant factor in the development of
pre-season fishing plans. The forecasts for this year’s Early Stuart and Late-run returns are small enough for Canada’s
escapement plan to trigger the implementation of a low abundance exploitation rate (LAER) for these groups, which
limits harvest opportunities on co-migrating Early Summer and Summer-run sockeye salmon. Since 1996, the Late-run
group has demonstrated abnormally early upstream migration, relative to the historic timing. This abnormal migration
behavior continues to substantially reduce harvest opportunities on these stocks and on co-migrating Summer-run
sockeye and pink salmon. The implementation of the LAER will limit harvests to those that are incidental to fisheries
3
directed on the more abundant Early Summer and Summer-run groups as well as pink salmon which are anticipated to
have harvestable surplus. Panel management objectives will place a high priority on achieving Fraser sockeye
escapement goals, including those for Early Stuart and Late-run sockeye. Given the constraints imposed by low returns
to these two management groups and the potential for adverse Fraser River conditions, pre-season plans were developed
which indicate that both Canada and the United States will be challenged to fully harvest their shares of total allowable
catches (TAC) of both Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon. Additional management actions may be taken by Canada
to protect Cultus and Sakinaw sockeye and Interior Fraser coho. Conservation concerns for other species and stocks
identified by Canada and the United States will be taken into account throughout the management season.
If in-season conditions are consistent with pre-season expectations, low impact fisheries would be expected to commence
in mid- to late July in Panel Waters. The actual start dates and duration of fisheries will depend on in-season estimates of
timing, abundance, diversion, and agreed management adjustments as well as concerns for other co-migrating species.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2017, 07:54:10 PM by wildmanyeah »
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Rodney

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2017, 03:36:19 PM »

Friday, July 14, 2017

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 14 to receive an update on the migration of Fraser River sockeye and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

Test fishery catches continue to be low. At the meeting today, the Fraser River Panel approved an Early Stuart run size estimate of 50,000 with a 50% marine timing through Area 20 of July 03. Assessments of Early Summer sockeye are ongoing.

On July 13 the discharge of the Fraser River at Hope was 4,693 cms, which is approximately 14% below average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 13 was 17.00C, which is 0.90C higher than average for this date. Fraser River discharge levels and water temperatures will be monitored closely to determine if specific management actions are required during the in-river migratory period to help achieve sockeye escapement goals.

All Panel Area waters remain closed to commercial salmon fishing.

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, July 18, 2017.

http://www.psc.org/download/468/2017/8326/july-14-2017.pdf

Birkenhead

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2017, 08:38:16 PM »

Rodney.

Not trying to provoke anything but have some general questions as I see you post these updates every year.

Who are the stakeholders the Fraser River Panel and what is their mandate in the Fraser River sockeye runs? Do they have the authority and decision making etc when various rivers are opened - or closed for the salmon fishery?

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wildmanyeah

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2017, 09:01:23 AM »


http://www.psc.org/publications/pacific-salmon-treaty/

THE PACIFIC SALMON TREATY
In March, 1985 the United States and Canada agreed to cooperate in the management, research and enhancement of Pacific salmon stocks of mutual concern by ratifying the Pacific Salmon Treaty.

The Treaty embodies the commitment made by Canada and the United States to carry out their salmon fisheries and enhancement programs so as to:

prevent over-fishing and provide for optimum production, and
ensure that both countries receive benefits equal to the production of salmon originating in their waters.
In fulfilling these obligations, both countries agreed to take into account:

the desirability in most cases of reducing interceptions
the desirability in most cases of avoiding undue disruption of existing fisheries, and
annual variations in abundance of the stocks.
Pacific Salmon Treaty
Format : PDF
Preview
Why We Have the Treaty
Salmon fishery managers of Canada and the United States are challenged by the fact that some of the Pacific salmon each country produces are caught by fishermen of the other country. This harvest of one country’s salmon by another’s fishermen is called interception.

Interception exists because salmon swim across international borders, beyond the jurisdiction of the government in whose water they were spawned. The fish migrate long distances, spending several years at sea. In the course of their migratory cycle, United States-spawned fish enter the fishery zones of Canada and Canadian fish enter United States waters, where they are vulnerable to the other country’s fishing fleets.

Salmon interceptions have been the subject of discussion between the two countries since the early part of this century. Over the years, research by both countries revealed that Alaskan fishermen were catching salmon bound for British Columbia, Oregon, and Washington; Canadian fishermen were capturing coho, chinook and other species bound for rivers of Washington and Oregon; fishermen in northern British Columbia were intercepting salmon returning to Alaska, and United States fishermen were catching salmon as they traveled through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and San Juan Islands towards Canada’s Fraser River.

Unless management policies and conservation concerns are jointly agreed, one nation may harvest too many of the other country’s stocks and frustrate the home country’s management plans. Uncontrolled interceptions may also jeopardize the administrative and financial support needed for salmon enhancement programs: the home country may be reluctant to invest in hatcheries or habitat protection and restoration if the fish produced are caught by fishermen of another nation. Intercepting fisheries encourage overharvest and discourage investment in conservation and enhancement.

Through the years, the United States and Canada reached agreements over the management of particular salmon stocks in limited regions; for example, Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon. However, the number and diversity of each country’s intercepting fisheries defied small-scale solutions. The Pacific Salmon Treaty is broad in scope, enabling it to serve as the means to coordinated management of the coast-wide salmon resource.

Significant Revisions to the Pacific Salmon Treaty – 1999 and 2009
The arrangements and institutions established in 1985 proved effective in the early years of the Treaty but became outmoded after 1992 when the original fishing arrangements expired. From 1992 to 1998, Canada and the United States were not able to reach agreement on comprehensive, coast-wide fisheries arrangements. In 1999 government-to-government negotiations culminated in the successful renewal of long-term fishing arrangements under the Pacific Salmon Treaty.

Some of the key elements introduced with the 1999 Agreement include the creation of the Transboundary Panel and the Committee on Scientific Cooperation; the inclusion of habitat provisions in the Treaty; a move from fisheries based on negotiated catch ceilings to abundance-based management fisheries; and the establishment of the Northern and Southern Restoration and Enhancement funds.

In May, 2008 the Pacific Salmon Commission recommended a new bilateral agreement for the conservation and harvest sharing of Pacific salmon to the Governments of Canada and the United States. The product of nearly 18 months of negotiations, the agreement represents a major step forward in science-based conservation and sustainable harvest sharing of the salmon resource between Canada and the United States of America. Approved in December, 2008 by the respective governments, the new fishing regimes are in force from the beginning of 2009 through the end of 2018.

The new fishing regimes are contained in the following Chapters of Annex IV of the Treaty:

Chapter 1. Transboundary Rivers
Chapter 2. Northern British Columbia and Southeast Alaska Boundary Area
Chapter 3. Chinook Salmon
Chapter 5. Coho Salmon
Chapter 6. Southern British Columbia and Washington State Chum Salmon
The agreement replaces previous versions of the Chapters.

Yukon River Salmon Agreement – 2002
In 1985, the Pacific Salmon Treaty included a commitment by Canada and the United States to carry on further negotiations concerning Yukon River salmon. The Parties exchanged notes concluding an agreement on Yukon River salmon in December 2002. There is a formal relationship between the Yukon Agreement and the Pacific Salmon Commission in that the Yukon River Agreement forms Chapter 8 of the Pacific Salmon Treaty. However, the Pacific Salmon Commission has no legal responsibility to administer the Yukon Agreement or to oversee the work of the Yukon Panel.
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RalphH

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2017, 09:48:41 AM »

The Fraser River Panel including membership can be found here: http://www.psc.org/about-us/structure/panels/fraser-river/#squelch-taas-tab-content-0-0

same info on one page: http://www.psc.org/membership-lists/
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RainbowMan

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2017, 09:40:10 AM »

I have a question for the experts:
There have been multiple FN openings in the Fraser for Chinook, Sockeye and incidental pinks over the last couple of weeks and there are more gill net openings announced for this and next week. While the last two DFO notifications are clearly emphasizing on the fact that this is still too early and "numbers from the test fisheries" are not giving us the true picture and estimate of the sockeye run size, how these gill net openings can be justified? Does the DFO have the actual escapement numbers for the early Stuart sockeye and is the risk of low escapement already mitigated? Can somebody shed some light please?

http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/fraser/docs/abor-autoc/UpperFraser/UMFOpenTimes-eng.htm

http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/fraser/docs/abor-autoc/UpperFraser/UMFPrevOpenTimes-eng.htm
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 09:41:58 AM by RainbowMan »
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wildmanyeah

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2017, 10:21:53 AM »

How can you have reliable test data when these are the comments almost daily from them.

Comments:
<Cottonwood GN> Gilled vs. Tangled: No Catch. Up to 2 seals observed. 1st set was short due to lots of debris in
the water.
<Whonnock GN> Gilled vs. Tangled: Sock Adult: 1 (1). 3 seals present.
<Area 20GN> 3 sea lions feeding at net.
<Area 12 Round Island GN>

Comments:
<Cottonwood GN> Gilled vs. Tangled: No Catch. Up to 2 seals observed. Active seal presence.
<Whonnock GN> Gilled vs. Tangled: Chin Adult: 0 (1). Switched to Whonnock Channel due to low water. A third,
non-assessment partial set on Glen Valley Bar caught 4 sockeye. Up to 3 seals observed.
<Area 20GN>
<Area 12 Round Island GN> Up to 1 sealion. Dogfish weighing down first set.
<Qualark GN>

Comments:
<Cottonwood GN> Gilled vs. Tangled: No Catch. Up to 4 seals observed. 2 stolen fish.
<Whonnock GN> Gilled vs. Tangled: Sock Adult: 3 (2).
<Area 20GN>
<Area 12 Round Island GN> 1 sea lion observed.
<Qualark GN> 10 foot sturgeon.

Comments:
<Cottonwood GN> Gilled vs. Tangled: Sock Adult: 2 (0), Chin Jack: 2 (0), Stlhd: 1 (0). Up to 1 seal observed.
<Whonnock GN> Gilled vs. Tangled: Sock Adult: 1 (2), Chin Adult: 1 (0). Up to 3 seals observed. 1 Sockeye
missing head
.
<Area 20GN>
<Area 12 Round Island GN>
<Qualark GN> 1 Chinook fell off net.

These are comments just from the last week!!

Its a daily occurrence, Ive seen note like sockeye with missing heads, bla bla bla

Should they should do something about the seals for the test fishery
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 10:38:03 AM by wildmanyeah »
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cammer

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2017, 10:26:53 AM »

I'm no "expert" but DFO has to open early for 1st nations to appease the band's otherwise they would just fish anyways. It's kinda a dammed if we do/dammed if we don't scenario. So on cue the dfo will always open from March on based on treaty rights etc. I used to watch the test fisheries every day,   listen to reports etc. Now I'm only expecting a maybe opening every 4 years with possible " heavy lobbied" chinook spot opening s, it looks like the Fraser is now Solely a native only river or soon to be
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wildmanyeah

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2017, 10:41:13 AM »

I'm no "expert" but DFO has to open early for 1st nations to appease the band's otherwise they would just fish anyways. It's kinda a dammed if we do/dammed if we don't scenario. So on cue the dfo will always open from March on based on treaty rights etc. I used to watch the test fisheries every day,   listen to reports etc. Now I'm only expecting a maybe opening every 4 years with possible " heavy lobbied" chinook spot opening s, it looks like the Fraser is now Solely a native only river or soon to be

I believe they have signed treaty obligations for First Nations Ceremonial fisheries. They do not have to provide them with an economical or substance fishery.
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cammer

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2017, 11:04:30 AM »

Yes your right but seriously doesn't matter, most ceremonial fish do end up sold anyways, giving them economic fisheries is basically the same to them. My take on it is First nations want income, salmon supply income, salmon get sold no matter when or what or if, they will overfish on boom year s and get what they can on drier years but.....THEY WILL ALWAYS FISH. DFO has really no option to control them IMHO. We as sports fisherman will never be a conservation issue but we sure can be a nuisance when it comes to.openings
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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2017, 01:36:49 PM »

I was discussing this with my wife the other day and she decided what they should do is just completely close the Fraser and tributaries to all but non-salmon species every third year.  That would remove all fishing pressure from every cycle every 12 years.  Unfortunately, this would never be agreed upon without huge cash payments to offset any fish income FN would lose.
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RalphH

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Re: 2017 Fraser River chinook, pink and sockeye salmon updates
« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2017, 02:10:44 PM »

As it is right now I believe only the Tsawwassen Band has a treaty. F&C fishing has to be provided excepting extreme conservation necessity by authority of the constitution.

All I can say about the allegation F&C fish is almost all sold - prove it. First salmon and similar ceremonies are serious stuff in native communities.
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