liketofish, the catch data you trot out from the chinook Albion test fishery is as mentioned earlier next to useless when it comes to determining numbers of successful spawners. And that's the bottom line as these stocks, like most Fraser sockeye, are bottoming out.
Do some research on this…. Start with Nicola – Coldwater stocks, then check out North Thompson tribs, then Chilcotin/Quesnel/Nechako/Blackwater tribs. After that try the upper Fraser River tribs like the McGregor, Willow and Bowron. Dismal counts.
Some systems down to less than 20 spawners.
However, the value of the test fishery at Albion is considerable as it supplies a measure of long term trends in stock origin and perhaps more importantly, run timing. Albion is the most downstream data point available between the estuary and natal stream. Back when I was involved in this stuff, all chinook at Albion were sampled for length and weight, scales, otoliths, DNA, tags, visible hatchery marks, parasite load, etc to determine their stream of origin. Over years this data provides a pretty good snapshot of in- river stocks and where they are heading. Spawning ground data is correlated with all this.
Add to this, steelhead catches in September/October determine whether or not the Thompson will open to angling. Pretty important stuff to many people.
For sure it would be great to have a better means of determining actual chinook/steelhead numbers entering the lower Fraser but the reality is Albion is all that is available. Perhaps in the future FN fisheries could supply much of this data but for now that is not funded.
18° C is when sockeye, and to a lesser degree chinook, start to show signs of decreased mobility and increased sub lethal stress indicators. Sadly, the timing of this July 16 opening coincides with Fraser River temperatures predicted to reach 18.5° C. This combined with an app. 25% decrease in historic average flow means even faster temperature rises if the summer proves to hot.
Scary times to be a Fraser River salmon but perhaps a great time to be an ethical angler.