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[RalphH]

So far this summer's Fraser River return of sockeye is wildly exceeding expectations. To date almost 700,000 early Stuart sockeye passed Mission. Quite the surprise given the preseason estimate was 116,000. It's 10 times and more than the typical return of the last 6 years, more than double the return of 2021 and eclipses last year's escapement of a mere 200 fish! Great news for a run that just a few years ago many expected would soon be extinct. As good is the Blinkhorn seine test fishery recorded 37,000 fish in the 4 days from July 28 to the 31st. The PSC Report for the 25 states "DNA analysis of a fish sample recently collected from the Area 20 gillnet test fishery indicated Fraser River sockeye contributions of 26% Early Stuart, 29% Early Summer and 43% Summer run." So the prospects for the summer run return are good.

[Dave]

So far this summer's Fraser River return of sockeye is wildly exceeding expectations. To date almost 700,000 early Stuart sockeye passed Mission. Quite the surprise given the preseason estimate was 116,000. It's 10 times and more than the typical return of the last 6 years, more than double the return of 2021 and eclipses last year's escapement of a mere 200 fish! Great news for a run that just a few years ago many expected would soon be extinct. As good is the Blinkhorn seine test fishery recorded 37,000 fish in the 4 days from July 28 to the 31st. The PSC Report for the 25 states "DNA analysis of a fish sample recently collected from the Area 20 gillnet test fishery indicated Fraser River sockeye contributions of 26% Early Stuart, 29% Early Summer and 43% Summer run." So the prospects for the summer run return are good.

True enough but the summer sockeye are now facing extremely warm Fraser river water temperatures and substantial pre spawning mortalities are expected.  The good news is the Early Stuart sockeye are on the grounds and are reported in to be in good condition.

[wildmanyeah]

So far this summer's Fraser River return of sockeye is wildly exceeding expectations. To date almost 700,000 early Stuart sockeye passed Mission. Quite the surprise given the preseason estimate was 116,000. It's 10 times and more than the typical return of the last 6 years, more than double the return of 2021 and eclipses last year's escapement of a mere 200 fish! Great news for a run that just a few years ago many expected would soon be extinct. As good is the Blinkhorn seine test fishery recorded 37,000 fish in the 4 days from July 28 to the 31st. The PSC Report for the 25 states "DNA analysis of a fish sample recently collected from the Area 20 gillnet test fishery indicated Fraser River sockeye contributions of 26% Early Stuart, 29% Early Summer and 43% Summer run." So the prospects for the summer run return are good.

I must say, I am quite surprised that you are the first to share this, considering you typically are the one to warn everyone about the fluctuations in catches and returns, and you often call us out when we become overly enthusiastic about the catch number.

Surely Ralph does not have sockeye fever

[wildmanyeah]

True enough but the summer sockeye are now facing extremely warm Fraser river water temperatures and substantial pre spawning mortalities are expected.  The good news is the Early Stuart sockeye are on the grounds and are reported in to be in good condition.

Part of me wonders with essentially having two or three years worth of Early Stuart age classes missing from the lake and the sea was there just less competition for this group. 

Also the big run of thompson sockeye has been collapsing in resent years as well so is this years cycle benefiting from that.

not all doing well Chilliwack sockeye look to be well below forecast and long term average so it can all just be good ocean conditions tho that certainly looks like it has played a big roll for some sockeye stocks.

[wildmanyeah]

https://watershedwatch.ca/stories/this-week-in-bc-fisheries-aug-1/

[SuperBobby]

No mention of whether the sporties will get an opening of course....

[RalphH]

I must say, I am quite surprised that you are the first to share this, considering you typically are the one to warn everyone about the fluctuations in catches and returns, and you often call us out when we become overly enthusiastic about the catch number.

Surely Ralph does not have sockeye fever

these are real numbers from the PSC website & weekly report and not something I made up on my own.

WMY also said:

Part of me wonders with essentially having two or three years worth of Early Stuart age classes missing from the lake and the sea was there just less competition for this group.

I wonder which part of you wonders? 

But yes that's a good observation and a possible factor.

[RalphH]

No mention of whether the sporties will get an opening of course....

see Dave's remarks above. I wouldn't expect an opening at all.

[wildmanyeah]

eclipses last year's escapement of a mere 200 fish!

given the size of this years run should there not been a good number of jacks last year

[wildmanyeah]

No mention of whether the sporties will get an opening of course....

just walk down to the warf and buy some and save the gas

[SuperBobby]

just walk down to the warf and buy some and save the gas

If they are for sale at the warf, then that means someone is fishing for them.... which means that I should be allowed to fish for them too.

[wildmanyeah]

If they are for sale at the warf, then that means someone is fishing for them.... which means that I should be allowed to fish for them too.

no disagreement here!

[wildmanyeah]

PSC has recommended a 4 million(Not been adopted yet) run size for the summer run. I believe at that runs size there will be 1-1.5 million TAC.


https://www.psc.org/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?juwpfisadmin=false&action=wpfd&task=file.download&wpfd_category_id=721&wpfd_file_id=19338&token=&preview=1

at that TAC there should be commercial, FSC, First Nation sales and rec opportunities.

See this posted on the Gillnetters Facebook Page:

NOTICE - The Canadian Commercial Reps just heard from the Fraser Panel that there will be a run upgrade to the 75 percent forecast probability at today's Fraser Panel Meeting. This means there could be some limited commercial allocation available to divide up between the groups, IF the stars all align.
We dont know how much, and we dont know how much of a long shot it is, and we don't know when it would open if it could open, but I will update live on this group as I find out. All I can say is get ready to fish, but also be prepared for disapointment.
Two major challenges that could wipe out any allocation.
1) The current escapement target is based on moderate river temperatures, if the river warms or the flow drops, the escapement target goes up, which eliminates our allocation.
2) The commercial fleet doesn't have any Late Run sockeye allocation, if the lates are on the migration route already then our allocation of summers will have to pass through to protect the late run sockeye.
I will try to have an update at 4pm.
Thanks,
-Ryan

[canoeboy]

Hey that means I might get to bar fish! For.....sockeye....

[RalphH]

Current river temps in the Canyon are close to 4 degrees C above above average (see today's announcement at the link below).

At those temperatures many panel members will point out the risk of much higher than average pre-spawn mortalities. Don't count on any opening as yet.

https://www.psc.org/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?juwpfisadmin=false&action=wpfd&task=file.download&wpfd_category_id=722&wpfd_file_id=19339&token=&preview=1 )