Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[fic]

"4,000,000 Pinks and no associated timing. This updated run size  should be viewed as a minimum run size estimate."  They didn't release their updated P50 forecast just that the 4 million is the Minimum.

In August 20, 2019 they had this "During the Panel call today the run size for pink salmon remained unchanged at the p50 forecast level of 5,018,600 and an Area 20 timing of August 28."

[Rodney]

P50 forecast was 3 million. The run size was upgraded to 4 million today. Expected Area 20 timing is August 25th.

Three additional timing forecasts for Fraser River pink salmon based on sea surface temperature and ocean current information indicate later timing (August 26, August 31 and September 1) than currently assumed (August 25). Based on these timing forecasts, it is still early in terms of pink salmon assessments and too early to generate a total run size estimate. However, it has been possible to generate a minimum run size assuming the earliest timing on record and an expansion associated with a small run size. This conservatively generates a minimum run size of 4.0 million for management purposes which is very close to the p75 forecast level of 4.051 million. Updated diversion rate forecasts indicate the same rate as assumed pre-season (50%), or higher (55%, 75%). Catches of pink salmon have increased in the river over the last week and have also been observed at Hells Gate. To date, 73,200 pink salmon have been observed migrating past Mission. At the Panel meeting today, a minimum pink salmon run size of 4.0 million was adopted by the Panel.

https://www.psc.org/download/639/2021/14047/august-20-2021-2.pdf

[DanL]

If I recall correctly, previous runs required something like 6M escapement prior to allowing any harvest?

If this cycle's return is marginal, it makes sense to let the majority of the target through prior to opening.

Hopefully they would be looking at specific terminal fisheries and maybe open ones which are likely to have returns that can sustain some activity.

[fic]

"Three  additional  timing  forecasts  for  Fraser  River  pink  salmon  based  on  sea  surface  temperature  and  ocean 
current information indicate later timing (August 26, August 31 and September 1) than currently assumed (August
25). Based on these timing forecasts, it is still early in terms of pink salmon assessments and too early to generate
a  total  run  size  estimate."

So there is no total run size estimate right now. Just the 4 million minimum size.

[wildmanyeah]

my guess is the lower fraser will get a pink opening this year sometime between sept 1-20. That's my prediction, need to have some pink fsc openings before that but i think looking at the data there is a fairly good chance will get an opening.

[RalphH]

daily passage past the sonic weir at Mission has increased substantially the last 2 days and total passage is about 200k. Catches at the Cottonwood & Whonnock gill net test fisheries are still low relative to other year but then the fish are late. They may linger off the river mouth longer than usual. PSC typically closes it's panel review & reports in early to mid-Sept and hands control back to DFO. I there is an opening my guess it will be later as DFO waits to be sure escapement past mission exceeds 3 million and any in river FN fisheries are approved.

[fic]

Area 20 test fishing just received the highest number of pinks caught this year at 14461 just yesterday.  It's looking good for the Fraser so far.  Fingers crossed for some sort of opening.

[wildmanyeah]

Area 20 test fishing just received the highest number of pinks caught this year at 14461 just yesterday.  It's looking good for the Fraser so far.  Fingers crossed for some sort of opening.

id say if we do get an opening like Ralph said 90% chance its open between sept 10-20 and like a 10% chance that it opens before that.

remember that the steelhead closure window starts September 21th.

if the fraser does open were looking at like a 7 day opening or max 20 day opening.  They also will not open it till fraser first nations get their fill so look for FSC pink directed fishery announcements.  Tho IMO they should be giving them some directed fishing for pinks and sockeye right now, rather then just chinook.

[Old Blue]

I was sturgeon fishing today above Mission....crazy amount of pinks rolling.  Very nice to see.

[stsfisher]

i

remember that the steelhead closure window starts September 21th.

FYI, First steelhead was caught in the nets yesterday.......

[RalphH]

FYI, First steelhead was caught in the nets yesterday.......

could be a Coquihalla fish. People who know that river well say there is a small late summer.

[stsfisher]

could be a Coquihalla fish. People who know that river well say there is a small late summer.

Could be, and I will not mention the other systems it could be from. All I know for sure is the first steelhead has shown up in the test fishery nets.

[clarki]

could be a Coquihalla fish. People who know that river well say there is a small late summer.

Used to enjoy going to the Othello tunnels at Hope this time of year. If you stood on the bridge long enough, and watched the water carefully enough, you'd see summer runs leaping over the obstacles.   

[wildmanyeah]

over 130k pinks past the mission counting station yesterday and in river test catches ramping up.

That's a significant amount in one day this early into the migration.

[iblly]

Tons of boats fishing off north arm over to Bowen. Are pinks actually open for retention out there ?