Fishery Notice
Category(s): ABORIGINAL - General Information
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Subject: FN0624-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 9, 2019
The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 9, to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2019 Fraser River
sockeye and pink salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser
Panel for pre-season planning. The majority of sockeye returning in 2019 will
be recruits from adult spawners in 2014 and 2015 with the latter being the
Adams River sub-dominant cycle line. DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye
salmon forecasts for 2019 continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in
annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a
result changing ocean conditions from 2013 to 2018 that included the warm blob
and an El Nino event. The 2019 pink salmon return will be the recruits from the
adult spawners in 2017 which was a very poor return year for Fraser pink
salmon.
To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
2,891,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above
8,676,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal
chance of a higher or lower return) of 4,795,000 fish for all management
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 4.789 million. The largest
contributing stocks for the 2019 return are expected to be the Chilko,
Stellako, Quesnel and Early Shuswap.
The pink salmon run size forecast suggests there is a one in four chance that
the actual number of returning pink salmon will be at or below 3,577,000 fish
(the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four chance that the
actual number of returning pink salmon will be at or above 7,513,000 fish (the
75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser
Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or
lower return) of 5,018,600 pink salmon. This is well below the long term
average of 12.7 million.
For 2019 pre-season planning purposes, the Early Stuart and Chilko forecast
timing of July 5 and August 10 respectively, were adopted by the Fraser Panel
at the June meeting in Suquamish, Washington. Timing for all other sockeye
stocks is based on historical correlations with the Chilko timing mentioned
above. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye and
pink salmon diverting their migration through Johnstone Strait is 69% and 50%
respectively, which the Panel also adopted for planning purposes.
The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was near average in March
and April of this year, however; a warmer than normal spring resulted in early
snowmelt throughout the Fraser watershed and snowpack well below average by
June. As such it is anticipated that water levels will be well below average
during the sockeye and pink migration period. This combined with an above
average forecast for air temperatures for the summer of 2019 has resulted in a
prediction of water temperatures that will be above the historic mean for July
and August. Actual water temperatures and discharge levels will be monitored
closely during the 2019 return to determine if migration issues are developing.
For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management
adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years,
Early Summer based on the historical median for the dominant/sub-dominant years
only (2018/19 cycles) and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for
all years. The Late run management adjustment is based on the weighted odd year
median excluding Birkenhead which is based on the all years median.
Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer
and Summer run management groups while the Early Stuart and Late run management
group will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate
(LAER) of 10% and 20% respectively. There will be no in-season estimates of
management adjustment for Early Stuart and Late run sockeye in 2019 unless
their respective run sizes are considerably larger than the median forecast and
generate TAC. It is anticipated they will be managed to the LAER, with the
expected outcome of a spawning escapement being below goal.
A significant rock slide has occurred in the Fraser River in the Big Bar area
just upstream from the community of Lillooet resulting in the creation of a 5
meter high waterfall/cascade in this section of the river. These conditions
have created a migration passage challenge for all salmon that are destined for
rivers and streams upstream of this slide. A Unified Command Incident
Management Team has been developed which includes participation of the Federal
and Provincial governments as well as a number of Fraser First Nations.
Information regarding the slide and work being done to address it is located at
the link below.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/emergency-response-and-recovery/incident-summaries/big-bar-landslide-
incident
Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 24 at Whonnock and July
2 at Qualark Creek. The Area 20 gill net test fishery is scheduled to begin on
July 10 while Round Island and Cottonwood gill net test fisheries are planned
to begin on July 11 and 12, respectively. To date 3 sockeye have been caught at
Whonnock while 8 sockeye have been caught at Qualark. In-season assessment of
Early Stuart sockeye will be provided later in July once more information
becomes available. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally
occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine
areas.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries
are closed due a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the earlier
timed Early Summer run stocks. Very limited fishing opportunities directed at
Chinook salmon for ceremonial purposes have occurred to date. The start-up of
sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated before late July or early
August depending upon location and will be based on the identification of
sockeye TAC for Early Summers or Summers, in-season run-timing information, as
well as considerations as a result of the slide at Big Bar. FSC fishers in
marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for
the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. Commercial and
recreational fisheries are not anticipated to begin until the end of July or
August depending on the identification of commercial TAC.
The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Friday, July 12, 2019.
Author
Topic: 2019 Fraser River Sockeye and Pink updates (Read 5583 times)