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[CohoJake]

https://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/local/article228389704.html

I had a feeling all winter long that the weather patterns we were seeing were all too familiar.  It has been waaay too warm and dry this March.  This does not bode well for runs already hit hard in 2015 (in particular Chinook).  Can anyone report on Vancouver Island snowpack?  I know it was dismal in 2015.

I haven't heard of the 'blob' returning yet, but I have been expecting it.

[RalphH]

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2019_mar1.pdf

The snowmelt component of seasonal runoff for Vancouver Island (85%), South Coast, and Lower Fraser is near normal.

[dobrolub]

I am not sure why you are saying it's been too warm. Where are you getting the data?

Subjectively speaking, it's been pretty cold. And it feels like we've accumulated a lot of snow.

[Every Day]

I am not sure why you are saying it's been too warm. Where are you getting the data?

Subjectively speaking, it's been pretty cold. And it feels like we've accumulated a lot of snow.

It has indeed been warmer than usual for March. Most places in B.C. have broken all time temperature records in March already, and if you think 18C (currently) is normal for March, I wouldn't know what to tell you. The long term outlook is also calling for a warmer than average spring, and a hotter than average summer, with below average precipitation.

I'm extremely worried for Vancouver Island. It only was registering 85% snow pack back on March 1. The streak of 3 days of 20+ weather we had a couple of weeks ago completely eliminated much of the low elevation snow. I wouldn't be surprised if we are down around 70% or less snowpack when the April 1 report comes out. Rivers peaked on the second day of heat and had already started dropping despite high temps. Add to that, the rivers are already the lowest I've ever seen them going into spring. All the aquifers are going to need SUBSTANTIAL rain to replenish.

To give you a quick break down/example of how dire the situation is/appears to be; Cowichan lake level is currently holding (due to snow melt ongoing) at .760m. 2015 the lake level on March 31 was 1.903 m. In 2015, the lake levels didn't drop to below .800 m until the very end of July. Most aquafers from what I've seen appear to be even worse than Cowichan.

In short, cross your fingers for a miserable spring, or the summer is going to be brutal for any outdoor activities with fires and drought conditions.

[clarki]

In my LM community, in March 2018 there were 18 days with measurable rainfall for a total of 112 mm. In March 2019 there has been 2 days for 5 mm.

The short range forecast calls for goodly amounts of rain. Bring it!

[RalphH]

the last couple of years our problem hasn't been a lack of snow pack, it has been warm dry springs. With back to back record fire seasons in BC, it's pattern that seems to be continuing this year.

[Hike_and_fish]

Well this isn't looking too good for a Pink fishing oppertunity

[fic]

Well this isn't looking too good for a Pink fishing oppertunity

Snow packs for Fraser and Squamish are looking ok, but whether there will be any openings is the big question.

[Ambassador]

Been driving over the Coquihalla every weekend for the past couple months and was really surprised how low the river was a couple weeks back when we had some heat that melted a fair amount of the visible snowpack. Luckily it has been pretty wet (with new snow at higher elevations) the past couple weeks and the river looked like it came up a fair bit this past weekend. Crossing fingers for a really wet spring!

[CohoJake]

I'm extremely worried for Vancouver Island. It only was registering 85% snow pack back on March 1. The streak of 3 days of 20+ weather we had a couple of weeks ago completely eliminated much of the low elevation snow. I wouldn't be surprised if we are down around 70% or less snowpack when the April 1 report comes out.

You were right, as of April 1, Vancouver Island was at 66% of normal snowpack.  The lower Fraser is at 71% and the Skagit at 51%.  None of the basins measured have above normal snowpack, which seems statistically very significant. 

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2019_april1.pdf

[ByteMe]

Here in the Alberni Valley the snow pack is dismal. Great Central Lake is at the lowest level in 30 yrs for March/April. The Stamp is at low August levels, in fact you can cross the river at some points, expect river closures this year especially on ECVI streams, but more concerning is the fire hazards this summer

[CohoJake]

Yep, it's shaping up exactly as I feared.  North Cascades (Nooksack and Skagit watersheds) are at 39% of normal snowpack.  https://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/weather-news/article230622874.html  Any updates on the Fraser watershed or Vancouver Island snowpack levels?

[clarki]

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/air-land-water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/river-forecast-centre/snow-survey-water-supply-bulletin

   

[CohoJake]

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/air-land-water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/river-forecast-centre/snow-survey-water-supply-bulletin   

Thanks for the link.  This report is depressing:  https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2019_may15.pdf

And so is this map:  https://governmentofbc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=b57800e08e46468bab506f9b9f0cbad6