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[RalphH]

The Fraser River Pink salmon forecast for this year is bleak. The is expected to be in the 1.7 to 5.4 million range with a 50% probability of 3 million. This compares to the long term average of 11.5 million and a return of about 9 million in 2019. I think the minimum escapement target is now 6 to 7 million and if the return is at the lower end of the scale it would be the lowest return in over 40 years.

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/fz3ggovqa1493jr/AABJMxIUb5ixiGvg2ESc53ala?dl=0&preview=DRAFT+Southern+Salmon+IFMP+2021-22.pdf

pg 365

[jackster]

All the frozen pink salmon Fillets in the market, whether it is Costco, Safeway Superstore or what have you, are "Products of China".
For whatever the rationale. it sucks doesn't it.

[CohoJake]

Ok, but this is important:

"Due to restrictions in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the out-migration of Pink salmon fry from the brood year (2019) was not assessed. As the brood year fry abundance is typically used to forecast returning adult abundance, different methodology was required to forecast returns for 2021. In the absence of juvenile data, an escapement time-series (1957-2019) was used for forecasting, however this escapement data has been inconsistently assessed, and as such the forecast should be treated with exceptional caution."

It sounds to me like this forecast is nothing more than a very conservative guess designed to discourage fisheries that will impact extremely depressed sockeye stocks. Unless there were major gravel-moving events that impacted the brood year, I don't see why it would come in below the 90% estimate.

Does anyone know what they mean by an "escapement time-series"?

[RalphH]

Time Series Analysis

https://www.statisticssolutions.com/time-series-analysis/

Time series analysis is a statistical technique that deals with time series data, or trend analysis.  Time series data means that data is in a series of  particular time periods or intervals.

https://towardsdatascience.com/the-complete-guide-to-time-series-analysis-and-forecasting-70d476bfe775

A time series is simply a series of data points ordered in time. In a time series, time is often the independent variable and the goal is usually to make a forecast for the future

It is a forecast and they usually miss the actual by some factor. Keep in mind that the 90% forecast is the return will be 5.4 million or lower with the 10% forecast being it will 1.7 million or lower. Ocean survival and other factors can vary widely from year to year.

We saw higher returns of 3.7 million in 2017 and no recreational retention. I think target escapement is around 7 million.

[CohoJake]

Time Series Analysis

https://www.statisticssolutions.com/time-series-analysis/


https://towardsdatascience.com/the-complete-guide-to-time-series-analysis-and-forecasting-70d476bfe775

It is a forecast and they usually miss the actual by some factor. Keep in mind that the 90% forecast is the return will be 5.4 million or lower with the 10% forecast being it will 1.7 million or lower. Ocean survival and other factors can vary widely from year to year.

We saw higher returns of 3.7 million in 2017 and no recreational retention. I think target escapement is around 7 million.

So this is just a forecast based on plotting trends from previous years, and not based on any actual data from this cycle (i.e. outgoing migration, ocean surveys, ocean conditions)?

[Rodney]

Don't expect an opening in the non-tidal portion of the Lower Fraser River, the likelihood of an opening in the tidal portion is small.

[CohoJake]

BTW - if the border opens before or in August, I'm happy to point BC anglers in the direction of pink fishing down here.  There should be some good opportunities.

[fic]

I remember in 2019, they opened it after the majority of pinks swam through.  Borders will remain closed until everyone has been vaccinated I am guessing.

[CohoJake]

I remember in 2019, they opened it after the majority of pinks swam through.  Borders will remain closed until everyone has been vaccinated I am guessing.

Yeah, I'm afraid you are right.  I think we will hit 70% vaccinated in Washington before the end of July, but you guys aren't getting your fair share of vaccine so far.

[Hike_and_fish]

I dont see why this year won't be better than last cycle. The numbers were so good last time. I remeber seeing upper reaches around the Rosedale bridge boiling from bank to bank with Pinks.

[fic]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjzj9Pw-OLvAhWXrJ4KHV-RC4gQFjAAegQIBhAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.psc.org%2Fdownload%2F598%2F2019%2F11898%2Fseptember-13-2019.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3OxR9MU25g3eq3OLQXyomU

According to this pink salmon past Mission through September 12 is 7,726,900.

and

Pinks returning to Campbell River the last 3 years is like

2020 - 500K
2019 - 550K
2018 -180K

https://islandfishermanmagazine.com/2020-campbell-river-chinook-returns-highest-since-1990/


The Pacific Ocean Blob in 2019 to 2020 was not as bad. I think that estimate for 8 million Fraser Pink salmon that returned in 2019 and somehow disappeared into 1.5 to 4 million into this year's forecast, is a bit unlikely.

[RalphH]

Don't expect an opening in the non-tidal portion of the Lower Fraser River, the likelihood of an opening in the tidal portion is small.

I think that was what happened in 2019 though the Vedder and the Harrison were open for retention.

[ynot]

now look at alaska forcast.
The 2021 commercial salmon forecast is for a robust harvest of sockeye salmon (46.6 million fish), and a substantially larger harvest of pink salmon (124.2 million fish) than occurred in 2020. Commercial harvests of coho and chum salmon are projected to be average. If realized, the 2021 forecasted commercial harvest of 190.1 million salmon will be substantially larger than the harvest of 2020, mostly due to the projected harvest of pink salmon.

[RalphH]

The Campbell pink salmon run is almost completely enhanced.

You are also cherry picking data for the Fraser:


 2013 : PSC Pre-season  Forecast: 8.9 mill Final in  season forecast: 26 million  forecast variance: +292%

 2015:  PSC Pre-season Forecast: 14.5 mill Final in  season forecast: 6.2 million forecast variance:  -220%

 2017: PSC Pre-season Forecast:    8.7 mill Final in season forecast:  3.7 million forecast variance: -235%

 2019  PSC Pre-season Forecast:    5.0 mill Final in season forecast 8.9 million forecast variance:   +178%

the returns for the last 3 cycles have not been strong as compared to the previous to the previous cycles. The pre-season forecasts are generally unreliable. We won't know if there is a sufficient surplus until actual test catch data in available in late August. Everybody cross your fingers.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjzj9Pw-OLvAhWXrJ4KHV-RC4gQFjAAegQIBhAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.psc.org%2Fdownload%2F598%2F2019%2F11898%2Fseptember-13-2019.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3OxR9MU25g3eq3OLQXyomU

According to this pink salmon past Mission through September 12 is 7,726,900.

and

Pinks returning to Campbell River the last 3 years is like

2020 - 500K
2019 - 550K
2018 -180K

https://islandfishermanmagazine.com/2020-campbell-river-chinook-returns-highest-since-1990/


The Pacific Ocean Blob in 2019 to 2020 was not as bad. I think that estimate for 8 million Fraser Pink salmon that returned in 2019 and somehow disappeared into 1.5 to 4 million into this year's forecast, is a bit unlikely.