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[RalphH]

In 2021 and 2023 in particular reports were pink salmon numbers were higher both at Furry Creek and in the river quite late in the season; like late August for Furry Creek. Others said some days at Furry were good and others were basically dead as you experienced.

[redside1]

I fished Furry Creek last Sunday, and didn't get a single bite, or see any signs of the pinks!  Did I miss them swimming through already?

the fish could also just be swimming up the other side of the inlet. last cycle was good at McNabb creek for pinks if you had a boat to get across to there.

[pkan]

FLC, RalphH and redside1, thank you all for your replies and your in-depth knowledge!  Much appreciated.

[coldfinger]

As a side note:
Just returned from the yearly trip to the Campbell River V.I.. Been doing it, same date , Aug 9th weekend, for years . This is the first time there was no pinks of any numbers in the river. NONE .
Lot's of fish in the ocean and some taken from the peir. Lot's of fish a bit further up the island in Sayward and the Eve.
Seems strange for some reason this year the pinks seem to be a bit slow to enter the rivers. Just an observation, but for those anticipating, things are indeed looking good.

[canucksfan233]

Have a buddy whos a commercial fisherman in alaska.
They were expecting a huge pink year this well and its coming at roughly 60-70% of original forecast.
Hope thats not the case here.

[fic]

Have a buddy whos a commercial fisherman in alaska.
They were expecting a huge pink year this well and its coming at roughly 60-70% of original forecast.
Hope thats not the case here.

Even the Fraser's run 60% of original forecast, we're still looking at way more fish than last pink season.  Too early to tell right now still what will happen.  There are lots of pinks making past Mission already.

[RalphH]

Have a buddy whos a commercial fisherman in alaska.
They were expecting a huge pink year this well and its coming at roughly 60-70% of original forecast.
Hope thats not the case here.

this is quite common and for a specific year the preseason forecast can be highly inaccurate. A few examples; 2017 was forecast at 8.7 million but came in at 3.7, the lowest return in a couple of decades, 2015 was forecast at 14.5 but came in at 6.2 million, 2007 was forecast at 19+ million but came in at 11 million.

Not related to pinks but the sockeye forecast for 2009 was 9 million but came in around 1 million.

Of course it also flips the other way. Also in my experience huge returns do not always turn into proportionally better fishing in river as so many fish can be caught by commercial fisheries in the tidewater. The escapement targets at around 6 to 7 million are not adjusted upwards when the return is very large so there is a potential for millions pinks to be caught in nets.

Just wanted to mention that the actual forecast DFO issues included the probability of the run size so accounts for possible error. The forecast of 27 million is really that the is a 50% probability of it being 27 million or higher. Conversely there is a 50% probability it will be lower. The forecast is actually a curve called a cumulative distribution function that expresses the chances that a particular variable will take on a specific range of values and looks something like:

[redside1]

on the plus side a few pinks have been caught already in the lower Fraser test fishing done by the pacific salmon commission. it's only a handful but better than zero.

[redside1]

be looking for a fisheries notice on Friday stating the lower Fraser is open for pink salmon retention. Rumour is there is a notice being prepared today for release tomorrow

[fic]

on the plus side a few pinks have been caught already in the lower Fraser test fishing done by the pacific salmon commission. it's only a handful but better than zero.

The passage at mission acoustics testing is showing more pinks than the last 2 cycles up to today's date.  However 2017 showed even more but ultimately crashed down to less than 4 Million total.  We need the steady numbers to repeat themselves day after day well into mid September to confirm a good run.

[RalphH]

Fabulous! Now we can all spend hours & hours chucking lures at nothing! People shouldn't spend money to buy lures for such an opening. Better to send the money to me and I'll invest it for them. What scam to lobby to open the river for pinks now. DFO will just say they gave us what we asked for. Nothing like an opportunity for nothing. 

[wildmanyeah]

I was looking at previous years around August 25 there starts being decent numbers in the lower Fraser.

[RalphH]

Sockeye are opening in the Strait on Saturday. The Fisheries Notice was issued this afternoon. Area 29 isn't included. Doesn't sound too promising for any kind of salmon opening in the river this weekend.

[redside1]

Sockeye are opening in the Strait on Saturday. The Fisheries Notice was issued this afternoon. Area 29 isn't included. Doesn't sound too promising for any kind of salmon opening in the river this weekend.

Wait until after 4pm tomorrow, standard dfo practice is late in the day before the opening day.

[RalphH]

In '23 the fishing was actually quite good by the Labour Day weekend which historically is quite early. I have fished pinks for over 30 years and invariably the fishing in the river below Mission is quite slow to non-existent in the later part of of August. Many times I have seen people head out to the bars or out in boats and get little or nothing. Historically the main push comes in over 7 to 10 days sometime late in the first week of Sept or in the 2nd week. Over many years of checking the Whonnock test fisheries and comparing it to my angling success the numbers have to be well past 100 and even 200+ for good fishing. I personally find the push to open the river in August suspect and more tuned to business interests than to angler success. Many many people will be skunked and turned off after all the hype. If and when the fishing gets hot it will be a gong show regardless