Fishing with Rod Discussion Forum
Fishing in British Columbia => General Discussion => Topic started by: Geff_t on January 06, 2009, 09:16:20 AM
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High Streamflow Advisory: South Coast, including:
o Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley
o Metro Vancouver
o Howe Sound
• Vancouver Island
Issued: 05January2009 6:30PM
The BC River Forecast Centre is issuing a High Streamflow Advisory for the South Coast, including Metro Vancouver, the Lower Mainland and the Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, and Vancouver Island.
An intense warm and wet frontal system, with a subtropical moisture feed, is approaching the South Coast. It is anticipated to arrive overnight tonight, bringing rain Tuesday and with heavy rain beginning Tuesday afternoon or evening. Current forecasts indicate the heavy rainfall will persist though the day Wednesday and lasting into Thursday morning. Environment Canada has issued a “Special Weather Statement”, and is anticipating releasing Rainfall Warnings in the next few hours.
Rainfall amounts in the current weather forecast from Environment Canada are very significant, with as much as 80-100+ mm of rain for Metro Vancouver and the Lower Mainland over 36-48 hours, and as much as 100-150 mm for the Fraser Valley (Surrey, Langley, Abbotsford, Mission, Chilliwack, Hope, etc.), and into Howe Sound (Squamish, Pemberton). With the south-westerly flow of this system, mountainous areas along the North Shore (West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, etc.) may receive heavier rain. Lesser amounts of rain are anticipated for south and east Vancouver Island (Nanaimo, Parksville, Duncan, Victoria).
Along with the rainfall, temperatures will warm significantly and the freezing elevation through the South Coast mountains will rise to about 2000 metres by early Wednesday, generating snowmelt. It is expected to remain elevated until Thursday. The cold weather of the past three weeks has allowed considerable snow to accumulate down to near sea level along the South Coast. This snow will melt rapidly with the arrival of the warm front. Most of the snow up to 800-1000 metres elevation is anticipated to melt by Thursday morning, adding considerable snowmelt water to rivers and streams.
Despite the presence of snow down to sea level in the South Coast, the accumulation of snowpack in the mountains is well below normal. Current snow measurements at the Chilliwack River automated snow pillow is near its record low level of the past 18 years of record. Some of the higher elevation snow along the South Coast may melt as well, add to flows in rivers.
In addition, the prolonged period of cold weather along the South Coast will have resulted in some areas of frozen soil. This reduces the potential for infiltration of rain and snowmelt water into the soil, and may result in more rapid runoff in some areas.
The magnitude of the forecast rainfall combined with the duration of the rain and snowmelt are will result in significant increases in river levels throughout the South Coast. Small creeks and streams in the Lower Mainland, Fraser valley, North Shore mountains, and along the Sea-To-Sky corridor in Howe Sound will begin to rise by later Tuesday or early Wednesday. They will rise until at least early Thursday, depending on when the heavy rain eases. With the heavy snow accumulations down to low elevation, localized high water and flooding is likely.
Rivers on the lowland areas of the Fraser valley (such as the Nicomekl R., Serpentine R., in Langley and Surrey), will rise quickly Wednesday and may possibly reach flood stage. Tidal rivers such as the Nicomekl River will have peaks coincident with their high tides, near noon on Wednesday and approaching the 4AM high tide Thursday.
Larger rivers such as the Chilliwack, Stave, Coquitlam, Seymour, Squamish, etc. will all begin to rise late Tuesday and will peak no earlier than mid-day Thursday. They are all expected to show significant stage increases.
Lesser rainfall amounts are forecast for Vancouver Island. However, the combination of rain and snowmelt will produce rises in river levels and possibly localized high water and ponding, particularly on the south Island (Parksville to Victoria).
This is expected to be a very significant high flow event.
The River Forecast Centre will provide an update by noon Tuesday, or earlier if necessary.
________________________________
Allan Chapman
Head, River Forecast Centre
BC Ministry of Environment
4th Floor, 395 Waterfront Crescent, Victoria BC V8W 9M2
PO Box 9362 STN PROV GOVT
Tel: 250-387-9472, Fax: 250-356-1202
Website: http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/rfc/
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The Chilliwack Vedder River should be OK as all the gravel excavation they have been doing the last few years including last year, 2008 will prevent any flooding. :-\
That is what the politicans keep telling us anyway. :-X
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I am just hoping that I do not have river front or lake front property again. At least this time we have a new pump installed in the crawl space. Just need to point the hose in the right direction ;) so that it leaves our yard.
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;) fly guy got mail
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I am not sure how bad flows will get on the Vedder during this melt at it usually takes a warm wind above 10 C with the heavy rain (Pineapple Express) to cause flood conditions.
At this time there is no wind and it is only 3 C and besides the snow should soak up a lot of moisture delaying the melt some what. I will check river condition later today but no jump in the river gauge yet.
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3~5 feet of snow at 3C this rain only becomes ice and it's not doing a good job of melting those snow.
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Hey CG, lemme know if you need a place to stay dry.... :o
I guess living on a hill isn't so bad after all, since all you "lowly" people get the run off!! ;) ;D
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I guess living on a hill isn't so bad after all, since all you "lowly" people get the run off!! ;) ;D
Your house is likely to get washed out first ;D ;D
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River still clear a few minutes ago.
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Well I guess the river has started to back up by my place as the wife just phoned to say the street drains have stopped working and yes they have been cleared. I am hoping the high tide was the reason for this other wise I guess I should of brought my waders to work as I think I am going to need them to get to the door.
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Chris was 4 degrees at around 8000 feet today flying home ::) I would say that there will be snow melt. Also thermo. is truck reads 8 right now. Looks like it will be bad pretty quick here. Figures, get home, can't wait to fish, and this happens. ::) O well, time to explore a new river in a week ;)
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8 C at this time with a wind and heavy rain. Large puddles every where on the way home from badminton with some cars stalling out in the new lakes along the roadways.
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Vedder about .7 from the high it has reached the last two years. I have never seen the creek so high behind our place in the last 30 years.
Forget about fishing the next while.
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The same with the creek by our place. It is just about over it's banks. The pump in the crawl space has been coming on every now and then keeping it dry.
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Wow that got to be a sight to see!! I'm only 5min away from Stave R. it's still same water level.
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Vedder is huge right now. Not as high as the big blow 2 years ago but it is getting close. It has been totally pouring rain the last 5 or so hours and doesnt show signs of stopping. The other thing I am worried about is it normally takes around a day for snow melt runoff to get down the mountains. Im thinking it is going to get a lot worse by tomorrow. :'(
On the bright side ---> NEW RIVER!!!! ;D
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Your house is likely to get washed out first Grin Grin
we're still high and dry, and the house hasnt moved a millimeter. :D the engineering firm will not hear the end of it if it did, seeing as we paid an arm and three legs on the engineering of our foundation and lot. there's a ton of concrete and rebar in there. its like a fortress.
didnt have much choice though, seeing as we built up against a huge retaining wall, which has a road on top of it as well..... ;)
should have went to school for engineering, would have saved ourselves bucket loads of $$...but I guess those guys gotta feed their families too.... ::)
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Wow that got to be a sight to see!! I'm only 5min away from Stave R. it's still same water level.
Well the Stave is regulated by a dam . Bet the lake is up a bit though.
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just be careful guys i really dont wanna hear some bad news from the river.....