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[wildmanyeah]

Seems like summers will now be constrained by the poor showing of lates. Guess that’s what happens when you grossly overfish the lates in 2018.

[RalphH]

Seems like summers will now be constrained by the poor showing of lates. Guess that’s what happens when you grossly overfish the lates in 2018.

How much was it over fished? what was the target spawning escapement vs the actual?

[wildmanyeah]

The preliminary 2018 Late Run Sockeye spawning escapement estimate totals 1,584,850 of which 735,119 are adult males, 849,721 are adult females and 10 are jacks (Table 1). It is 69% of the 2014 brood year escapement of 2,303,384 and 64% of the cycle average (excluding 2002 due to incomplete assessment) of 2,468,905 (Figure 1). It is 81% of the Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC) estimate of potential spawning escapement1 of 1,950,188, 84% of the spawning escapement target of 1,880,000 and 82% of the projected spawning escapement2 of 1,933,800 based on the Fraser River panel final in-season adopted Late Run size of 4,700,000.

[wildmanyeah]

4.7 million return only 1.5 million made it to spawn.

Cycle spawning average is 2.5 millions

So over harvested by about 500k to 1 million

If you recall the gulf troll over estimated how many were in the gulf and the the area B seine cleaned up. Then around 300k went missing  from mission to spawning grounds.

[RalphH]

4.7 million return only 1.5 million made it to spawn.

Cycle spawning average is 2.5 millions

So over harvested by about 500k to 1 million

If you recall the gulf troll over estimated how many were in the gulf and the the area B seine cleaned up. Then around 300k went missing  from mission to spawning grounds.

Comparing the cycle spawning average to the actual return before any harvest or loss is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison. The final report was issued with the 2018 annual report and they estimated the actual spawning escapement of about 1.5 million was about 15% below the target of 1.8 million. Using the 20/20 vision of hindsight one could say they should have upped the target to over 2 million. Considering this segment of the run can produce over returning 10 adult (ie 15 million +)  for every spawning pair it seems  a bit of a reach to say they over fished it.

[roeman]

The video was interesting to listen to.  But it really worries me if these are the people planning the future of fishing in the world.  The date shown says it was presented October 2022. O a happier not I was out on the Fraser and Harrison today for a boat ride and seen some interesting things.  Saw an older bar fishing where a creek dumped into the Fraser landing a Spring.  So I went to shore and had a chat.  Says he gets a couple bites a day and has only went home empty handed twice in the last two weeks.  His wife drops him off in the morning where he walks in and sits on the bank for the morning and picks him up later in the day.  LOL.  Tells me he will fish untill he cant walk in anymore.  "What are they going to do to me,  to old to go to jail and no money to pay a fine.  No I would not report him.... I say good for him....
On the way back seen a couple FN fishing, went to shore again and shared my last 3 beers with them.  They said they were getting on average 800 sockeye a day..  One net two guys.  Amazing. Things are so screwed.  Oh my bad,  I guess there is a ceremony this weekend...

[Chum Slayer]

At least someone gets to fish for springs in the Fraser, the dfo have destroyed the salmon fishery on the Fraser. we need landlocked salmon fisheries for coho and chinook preferably within 2 hours of Vancouver.

[mikeyman]

No Fish for you! Million for us. We make 2 wrongs into a right.

[Wiseguy]

I’m thinking there’s a lot of sockeye in the Fraser because people are buying fish from the natives everyday now. Hey DFO time to open it up to the sporties. We take a fraction of the fish compared to what the Natives are hauling in everyday. 

[wildmanyeah]

I’m thinking there’s a lot of sockeye in the Fraser because people are buying fish from the natives everyday now. Hey DFO time to open it up to the sporties. We take a fraction of the fish compared to what the Natives are hauling in everyday. 

From fort langley to Albion out to hope to refer trucks getting loaded from the docks of port McNeil with Fraser sockeye.

Seems like there’s a new market maker out their

[stsfisher]

I'll bet the lady standing at The Cheam Cannabis shop on Hwy.9 with the sign that reads FRESH SALMON would be more than happy to sell a couple fish if you stopped to say hi. But DFO requests that you ask for the license required to sell or you could be in big trouble for buying.......

[wildmanyeah]

I'll bet the lady standing at The Cheam Cannabis shop on Hwy.9 with the sign that reads FRESH SALMON would be more than happy to sell a couple fish if you stopped to say hi. But DFO requests that you ask for the license required to sell or you could be in big trouble for buying.......

I dont think ive seen as much FSC sale fish ever, The reports are everywhere. Ill be surprised if any fish make it back to the elders and the drying racks.

[VAGAbond]

Record returns to Bristol Bay, Alaska this year.  Far Larger than forecast to the Nass, you can fish sockeye in Meziadin Lake, large return to the Skeena.  Double forecast return to the Stamp/Sproat at Port Alberni.  Large return to Lake Washington within Seattle.  The largest ever run recorded passing over the Bonneville Dam on the Columbia, you can now fish Sockeye in Osoyoos Lake.  The conclusion has to be that ocean conditions were good for sockeye all up and down the coast.  What happened to the Fraser fish?  Impact of Discovery Islands fish farms?

It is of interest to learn how the sockeye fared for other rivers and runs.  I recall that the Upper Pitt sockeye go out via Juan de Fuca.  Anybody know how they fared this year?  Other streams anybody?

[wildmanyeah]

Record returns to Bristol Bay, Alaska this year.  Far Larger than forecast to the Nass, you can fish sockeye in Meziadin Lake, large return to the Stikine.  Double forecast return to the Stamp/Sproat at Port Alberni.  Large return to Lake Washington within Seattle.  The largest ever run recorded passing over the Bonneville Dam on the Columbia, you can now fish Sockeye in Osoyoos Lake.  The conclusion has to be that ocean conditions were good for sockeye all up and down the coast.  What happened to the Fraser fish?  Impact of Discovery Islands fish farms?

It is of interest to learn how the sockeye fared for other rivers and runs.  I recall that the Upper Pitt sockeye go out via Juan de Fuca.  Anybody know how they fared this year?  Other streams anybody?

ITs hit or miss for fraser fish, Early Stuarts for example returned well above forecast and there is a few other runs that are returning above forecast. But there is some traditional Big runs that look like they are returning well below forecast.

Chilko looks to be tracking below but Birkenhead, Big Silver looks to be above forcast.

Early summer is tracking near forcast but its being brought down by Early Thompson proportion that is tracking WAY below forecast.

https://www.psc.org/download/656/2022/14720/2022-08-22-distribution.pdf

[RalphH]

Record returns to Bristol Bay, Alaska this year.  Far Larger than forecast to the Nass, you can fish sockeye in Meziadin Lake, large return to the Skeena.  Double forecast return to the Stamp/Sproat at Port Alberni.  Large return to Lake Washington within Seattle.  The largest ever run recorded passing over the Bonneville Dam on the Columbia, you can now fish Sockeye in Osoyoos Lake.  The conclusion has to be that ocean conditions were good for sockeye all up and down the coast.  What happened to the Fraser fish?  Impact of Discovery Islands fish farms?

It is of interest to learn how the sockeye fared for other rivers and runs.  I recall that the Upper Pitt sockeye go out via Juan de Fuca.  Anybody know how they fared this year?  Other streams anybody?

hot summer, warm water, wild fires (!) and generally poor returns for several years may be factors.  I think the effect of the Big Bar slide will start to be felt next year? If so, you think the returns have been bad over the last 6 or 7 years...just wait. The river could be all but empty of Early Stuart, Early Summer and Summer returns.