August 26th update
The Fraser River Panel met today to receive assessment information on Fraser
River sockeye and pink salmon and discuss regulatory actions. Purse seine test
fisheries in Johnstone Strait confirm that a substantial migration of Summer-
run sockeye salmon has been occurring through this area over the past week,
which has resulted in higher estimates of their abundance. However, the
assessed abundance of Fraser River sockeye to-date is still much lower than the
pre-season forecast. Providing early and accurate estimates of the abundance
of Early Stuart, Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye this season has been
difficult because their marine migration has been much later than the latest
dates on record and because of their asymmetrical migratory pattern through the
marine assessment areas. Consequently, run size estimates for these sockeye
have increased over-time as these very late migrating fish are accounted
through the primary assessment areas. The estimate of the diversion rate of
Fraser River sockeye through Johnstone Strait increased over the past week and
is presently 80 percent.
Fisheries in the United States have caught approximately 25,000 Fraser River
sockeye, and an assessment fishery in Canada harvested approximately 1,100
Fraser River sockeye. Non-commercial catches of Fraser River sockeye total
approximately 516,000 fish in First Nations and 110,000 fish in test fisheries
to-date.
The continued migration of Early Summer-run sockeye through the marine approach
areas over the past week resulted in an increase in the run size estimate of
these sockeye from 300,000 fish to 375,000 fish at the Panel meeting on August
22 and then to 400,000 fish at the meeting on August 24. At the meeting today,
the run size estimate of Early Summer-run sockeye was increased to 450,000 fish
(63 percent of the 50 percent probability level forecast of 718,000 fish). T he
50 percent migration date of these sockeye through Area 20 is estimated to have
occurred on August 10, which is ten days later than the latest date on record
and eighteen days later than their average timing of July 23. The estimated
escapement of Early Summer-run sockeye past Mission through August 25 is
317,000 fish.
On August 22 the Panel approved a run size estimate of 4,500,000 Summer-run
sockeye. At the meeting on August 24 it was increased to 5,000,000 fish and at
the meeting today it was increased to 6,000,000 fish (54 percent of the 50
percent probability level forecast of 11,048,000 fish). The 50 percent
migration date of Summer-run sockeye through Area 20 is currently estimated to
be August 22, which is six days later than their latest migration date on
record and two weeks later than their average timing of August 8. The earlier-
timed Summer-run sockeye (Late Stuart and Stellako) are declining rapidly in
marine areas and Chilko and Quesnel sockeye now dominate in these areas. The
escapement of Summer-run sockeye past Mission through August 25 is currently
estimated at 1,575,000 fish.
DNA analyses indicate that the migration of Late-run sockeye (excluding
Birkenhead sockeye) through the marine assessment areas has been low over the
past several days. During pre-season planning, the Minister for Fisheries and
Oceans Canada adopted a maximum exploitation rate of 15 percent on the total
return of Late-run sockeye due to conservation concerns for these fish. Late-
run conservation constraints severely limit the Panel's ability to conduct
fisheries on surplus Summer-run sockeye that may have otherwise been available
for harvest. At the meeting today, the Panel adopted an "operational" run size
estimate of 261,000 Late-run sockeye for basing management decisions upon. The
estimated escapement of Late-run sockeye past Mission through August 25 is
129,000 fish.
The Department has forecasted that the diversion rate of Fraser River pink
salmon through Johnstone Strait this season will be 35 percent and that the 50
percent migratory timing of these salmon through Area 20 will occur on August
29. Although a relatively low migration rate of Fraser River pink salmon was
forecast through Johnstone Strait, catches from purse seine test fisheries
suggest that the migration of pink salmon through Johnstone Strait this season
continues to be much stronger than the abundance currently migrating through
Juan de Fuca Strait. Stock identification analyses indicate that Fraser River
pink salmon comprise the majority of pink salmon presently migrating through
the marine assessment areas. An assessment of how Fraser River pink salmon
abundance in the approach areas is tracking relative to the pre-season forecast
(16,318,000 fish at the 50 percent probability level forecast) will be provided
next week. Fisheries in the United States have caught approximately 23,000
Fraser River pink salmon, and an assessment fishery in Canada harvested
approximately 400 fish. Non-commercial catches of Fraser River pink salmon
total approximately 206,000 fish in First Nations, 70,000 fish in test
fisheries, and 8,000 fish in recreational fisheries to-date. There has been an
unusually large, early migration of pink salmon into the Fraser River and there
are reports of pink salmon in the Harrison River. The escapement of pink
salmon past Mission through August 25 is currently estimated at 282,000 fish.
There have also been reports of large numbers of pink salmon migrating past
Hell's Gate over the past week.
The discharge level in the Fraser River (at Hope) on August 25 was
approximately 2,500 cms, which is 19 percent lower than average and the water
temperature of the Fraser River (at Qualark Creek) was 16.9 degrees Celsius,
which is average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to remain
below 18.0 degrees Celsius over the next week. The management adjustment for
Early Summer-run sockeye is currently 166,000 fish due to their prolonged
exposure to more adverse (warmer) water temperatures in the Fraser River
resulting from their very late migratory timing this season. The management
adjustment for Summer-run sockeye is presently 72,500 fish. These additional
Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye are added to the escapement objective
to help ensure that the target escapement reaches the spawning grounds.
Approximately 1,800 sockeye have entered the Gates Creek spawning channel
through August 24. The enumeration fence at Scotch Creek has counted over
1,600 sockeye through August 24 and most of these fish have been much smaller
than average. The Nadina River spawning channel operator has counted over
2,700 fish through the fence to-date. On August 19, the first Chilko sockeye
was observed at Henry's Bridge and over 1,200 sockeye have migrated past this
observation point thus far. Enumeration programs in the Chilliwack, Upper
Pitt, Harrison, Thompson, Horsefly, Late Stuart, and Stellako sockeye systems
have commenced. Observers at the Cultus Lake enumeration fence have counted
nine sockeye passing the fence through August 24.
First Nations
First Nations targeted Fraser River sockeye fisheries in the Fraser River will
continue this week in the in-river fisheries and an update will be provided on
August 29 following the next Fraser River Panel meeting. Marine First Nations
fisheries targeting Fraser River sockeye will be closing as of 23:59 hours,
Saturday August 27.
Recreational
Sockeye retention remains closed in the Fraser River. Opportunities for the
commencement of Fraser River sockeye retention are highly unlikely but will be
reviewed and an update will be provided on August 29. Recreational fisheries
for sockeye in the marine waters will be closing as of Saturday August 27.
Commercial
Remains closed. Opportunities for the commencement of any assessment or
commercial fisheries are highly unlikely but will be reviewed and an update
will be provided on August 29.
The Panel will meet again on August 29 to evaluate the status of the Fraser
River sockeye and pink salmon runs and to consider regulatory actions.
For more information, contact Paul Ryall at (604) 666-0115.
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Topic: No dice on the Fraser fishery this year... (Read 9426 times)