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Author Topic: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions  (Read 23485 times)

RalphH

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #90 on: November 20, 2020, 08:15:10 PM »

in the first wave in Canada the virus got into senior critical care Centres very early. That produced a relatively high mortality rate very quickly since people over 65 in poor health are at extreme risk. Since then measures taken to protect those specific environments has helped avoid a widespread repeat  though there are signs it is happening again.

Just trying to compare infection and mortality rates is something of an apples and oranges comparison.
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Knnn

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #91 on: November 22, 2020, 07:30:26 PM »

Knnn

I'm trying to understand why you are trying to downplay the risks that this pandemic presents. The only conclusion I can come to is that you are upset because you (or someone close to you) had to delay or cancel a medical procedure because of the pandemic.  I could be wrong of course.


Hey Roderick, that's a very reasonable question. 

Actually I'm not upset and fortunately no one I know has been severely impacted by COVID {touches wood}.  Although some of my mild frustration at the lack of scientific transparency or open discussion may be leaking through in some of my posts.

I am a scientist and I often have to assess the risks posed by contaminated land on human and ecological receptors.

Simply put, I see a huge increase in testing, a huge and ever growing number of cases, which would suggest a corresponding upswing in COVID mortality, if something is not done.  However, the numbers do not appear to support this assumption.  Death rates are far lower than during the epidemic and far fewer than would be expected if there was a strong correlation with infection rates.  I do not know if this is due to false positive test results, better protection of care homes, improved treatment methods or possible all the above or other factors.   However, what appears to be clear is that while the number of cases increases every day, mortality is not following the same pattern   As of today's date, overall crude case to fatality ratios across the world are trending down, even though case numbers are still climbing.  I do acknowledge, this is not the case in Canada where there has been an upturn in the case fatality ratio, but no where near the rate suggested by infection rates and the rate appears to be following a relatively normal seasonal trajectory. 

I agree with Ralph that trying to compare infections rates and mortality is challenging, however that is exactly what is being used to justify the control measures.

I also agree 100% that COVID is a very serious disease and that it poses very significant health risks to the elderly and those with poor metabolic health.  Therefore, the implementation of control measures to minimize these risks is absolutely essential.  However, what I have never seen is a risk assessment (presented by the media, health and/or provincial or federal authorities) that consider how excess moralities associated with COVID should be balanced against the adverse effects associated with the control measures. 

I am 100% behind social distancing, hand washing and masks, which have little adverse impact on society and should be rigorously applied.  However, there appears to be an ever building rhetoric that the only way to control the "exponential growth of this disease" is a total lock down.  However, I am concerned that such a lock down and closing businesses may be a step to far.  Looking at countries across the world that have implemented very rigorous lock downs (in totalitarian regimes) compared to countries that have been far more lax or not carried out any lock downs has not provided clear evidence that lock downs work. 

Every death due to COVID is sad and tragic, however, there are also very sever consequences associated with delayed cancer, heart and stroke treatment, domestic abuse, suicide and economic down turns that may severely hinder a country''s ability to look after it citizens for many years to come.  I find it worrying that this fine balance is not acknowledged or discussed, which is why I raise the topic.


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Roderick

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #92 on: November 23, 2020, 04:20:14 PM »

Knnn

I'm glad to hear that you and yours remain untouched by the pandemic. 

I understand that you want the cost benefit analysis of lockdown before any decisions are made, but I have the feeling we wont know the true cost of action or lack thereof for many years to come. We can't afford to wait for economists and scientists to produce an assessment before we do something. Aside from the purely economic costs such as shuttered businesses, much of the cost is in intangibles.  It's impossible to put a number on the social costs like the increase in overdoses, suicides, divorces, etc.  The costs of not having a lockdown, like elders not being there to teach their grandchildren, are even more tenuous. 

To me it seems obvious that lockdowns work.  Its just another name for quarantine, which has been the gold standard in disease control for millennia.  The severe lockdown in Wuhan virtually eliminated the disease in that area within a few weeks. 

The death rate is low here for many reasons, but it's primarily due to socially isolating the most at risk and hospitalizing the cases that would otherwise be fatal.  But that will all change if the number of severe cases increases to the point where there are no longer enough hospital beds and staff.  People that would survive with treatment will end up dying in the waiting room.

We, all of us, are obviously wiling to accept the price of the few people that die even with treatment or we would all be locked in to our homes and all businesses and schools closed, but allowing the health care system to become overwhelmed is where I draw that very fine line. 
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Knnn

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #93 on: November 25, 2020, 04:57:43 PM »

Finally some good news.

Two (2) recent clinic trails have clearly demonstrated the efficacy of Vitamin D to moderate the adverse impacts of COVID-19.  These represent the first trials that have established a causal linkage between Vitamin D and COVID rather than the correlational or epidemiological relationships that numerous previous studies have suggested. 

The previous (numerous) studies indicted that COVID-19 patients are typically low in Vitamin D, suggesting that this vitamin is necessary to fight of the infection, or that people who already have low vitamin D levels are more likely to be infected and/or suffer worse symptoms (this partially explains why certain ethnic minorities suffer higher infection and mortality rates, such as the Somali population in Sweden).

However, we now have parallel, randomized, blind and controlled clinical trials that demonstrate high vitamin D levels will reduce symptoms and reduce infection periods.  The trial conducted in a Spanish hospital demonstrated that if hospitalized COVID patients are given high doses of vitamin D, only 2% will end up in ICU.  This is compared to 50% of patients who did not receive vitamin D.  In addition there were no deaths in the 50 patients given Vitamin D compared to 2 deaths out of the 25 Patients who did not receive the vitamin.

The study is explained very clearly and in greater detail by Dr. John Campbell here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8Ks9fUh2k8&t=1421s

Link to the original paper:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456194/

The second study was conducted in India using over the counter Vitamin D tablets.  This trial shows that if patients who are admitted to hospital with COVID are given high doses of Vitamin D, they clear the virus from the system a lot faster than patients who do not receive Vitamin D and are less likely to suffer from blood clotting.

Again the study is explained in greater detail here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7H2c0Zm6PFw

Link to the original paper:
https://pmj.bmj.com/content/early/2020/11/12/postgradmedj-2020-139065

Like the doctor, I am bewildered as to why this information has not been picked up by the media and there has been no change in National or Provincial health policy or recommendations.

These trials and all the epidemiology represent a huge evidence base that clearly demonstrates that Vitamin D reduces COVID infection duration, severity of outcome and even mortality.  Vitamin D is an extremely cheap compound to manufacture, is shelf stable, is readily available and there should be little problem supplying or distributing it to the entire population of Canada.   Considering that prophylactic treatment with Vitamin D is likely to significantly diminish the risk of COVID overloading our medial system, and in particular ICU, why are we not hearing more about it?  I don't believe in conspiracy theories, but this has me baffled. 

The way forward now appears to be clear; get everyone to take Vitamin D in the morning before we step outside with our masks on or lock down the province/country and destroy our economy.  OK; that is more than a little facetious, however it does make the point. 


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Roderick

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #94 on: November 26, 2020, 12:56:03 PM »

And one of the best natural sources of vitamin D is... wait for it... salmon and trout.  ;D
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clarki

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #95 on: November 26, 2020, 02:15:56 PM »

And from exposure to sunlight...

We live in a climate where it rains for 13 months of the year, and if it's not outright cloudy, it's overcast instead.

We're screwed :)
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Rodney

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #96 on: November 26, 2020, 02:55:54 PM »

So basically when this is over, there'll only be breatharians left on this planet. Got it. :D

dobrolub

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #97 on: November 26, 2020, 03:37:46 PM »

So basically when this is over, there'll only be breatharians left on this planet. Got it. :D
CO2 -> Photosynthesis -> O2 . No light -> No Oxygen -> No breatharians either.
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Knnn

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #98 on: November 27, 2020, 04:49:59 PM »

An excellent white paper on the lack of effectiveness of lock down and alternative strategies:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LtNKwJQKdkmILwd9nJWmR4UOfLi7E5yj/view

Lancet paper on country level assessment of lock down on health outcomes.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext

An informative general discussion on the effectiveness of crackdowns and its downsides.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x6eSZA90M4
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Roderick

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #99 on: November 28, 2020, 10:14:27 PM »

Meanwhile both the number of active cases and the total number of cases in BC had doubled in the last 26 days, and the 7 day average of new cases has doubled in 21 days. 

This means the growth rate has actually slowed down since early November... I wonder why?
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Knnn

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #100 on: December 18, 2020, 02:48:42 PM »

I wonder why we are not seeing more about Ivermectin in the news or from our health care professionals?

Numerous, not just 1 or 2, but many clinical trials have clearly established that this anti-parasitic and antiviral drug is very effective in prophylaxis AND treatment of COVID-19.  Even country wide use of this drug has demonstrated its prophylactic effectiveness in large population groups in South America.

It would appear to be a game changer, and has an established history of use and known toxicity, with a good safety profile.  Perhaps it is not being considered because it is an established unlicensed drug that no one can make any money on?  Too paranoid...probably.

Coles notes can be found here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLWQtT7dHGE

Are very passionate speech here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq8SXOBy-4w


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CohoJake

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #101 on: December 18, 2020, 05:15:27 PM »

I wonder why we are not seeing more about Ivermectin in the news or from our health care professionals?

Numerous, not just 1 or 2, but many clinical trials have clearly established that this anti-parasitic and antiviral drug is very effective in prophylaxis AND treatment of COVID-19.  Even country wide use of this drug has demonstrated its prophylactic effectiveness in large population groups in South America.

It would appear to be a game changer, and has an established history of use and known toxicity, with a good safety profile.  Perhaps it is not being considered because it is an established unlicensed drug that no one can make any money on?  Too paranoid...probably.

Coles notes can be found here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLWQtT7dHGE

Are very passionate speech here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq8SXOBy-4w

Here's an analysis of that drug from August:

https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/88310

From that article:

The Next HCQ?

Parallels have been drawn with ivermectin and HCQ: Both reduced viral load in vitro and produced a signal that led to their being prescribed under compassionate use, said Zeno Bisoffi, MD, PhD, of the University of Verona in Italy.

"There were some results from observational studies claiming that [hydroxychloroquine] worked, but in fact they were small studies with very heavy methodological flaws," Bisoffi told MedPage Today. "Nevertheless, they were cited everywhere, so most clinicians around the world were using hydroxychloroquine with no evidence."

"This is a mistake we want to avoid with ivermectin," Bisoffi said.

Both drugs were also caught up in the notorious Surgisphere Corp. scandal. In late May, flawed data from the shadowy company were used in a since-retracted Lancet study that found HCQ was associated with an increased risk of death and ventricular arrhythmias.

A lesser-known preprint study of 169 hospitals around the world also used Surgisphere data to demonstrate that ivermectin reduced the need for mechanical ventilation and death. As with the HCQ study, the scientific community identified discrepancies in Surgisphere's ivermectin data, and the paper was withdrawn -- but not before it was downloaded more than 15,000 times.



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Knnn

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #102 on: December 19, 2020, 04:22:06 PM »

CohoJake,

If you watch the video, you will see why there are huge differences between ivermectin and HCQ and why many many health care professionals are asking health authorities to revisit that earlier August assessment.  Since then there have been many clinical trials, not observational studies.
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CohoJake

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #103 on: December 21, 2020, 11:13:35 AM »

CohoJake,

If you watch the video, you will see why there are huge differences between ivermectin and HCQ and why many many health care professionals are asking health authorities to revisit that earlier August assessment.  Since then there have been many clinical trials, not observational studies.
Do you have links to any completed studies?  Or are they all still in progress?
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fishtruck

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Re: A return to Lock down for Coastal and Fraser Health Regions
« Reply #104 on: December 21, 2020, 02:30:28 PM »

Not trying to be an A$$hat,just an observation. When did we start relying on YouTube videos as sound science? or even somewhat credible science?
I've always thought that if you wanted any real facts, periodicals and scientific journals were the go to source
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