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[CohoJake]

Where is this?

Olympic Peninsula, near Forks, WA.

[Wiseguy]

Olympic Peninsula, near Forks, WA.

Thanx

[RalphH]

.- but I seem to remember someone saying they thought for whatever reason  -historically-  years with poor chum returns correlated to higher steelhead returns that year...? Just being hopeful  maybe

Pink salmon abundance is negatively correlated with steelhead numbers.

[redside1]

Wow, you made me check - Bogachiel River hatchery counts for winter steelhead for past 4 years in December on approximately the same date:
Dec 12 2016 - 395
Dec 19 2017 - 1,208
Dec 17 2018 - 423
Dec 16 2019 - 176

Possibly the worst ever.  Makes me not feel so bad about not being able to pull off a trip over to the Bogachiel this December.

check the numbers at Reiter & the rest of the Snohomish system.
heard there was only 2 fish back so far and that's why they closed it down.

[wildmanyeah]

Not surprised just about every fish that went out to sea in 2016 has returned had a piss poor return. 2017 was the worst return of pinks, then 2019 was the worst return of sockeye and chum. All fish that went out to sea in 2016-2017.  The blob hit in 2015 so not surprising.  Pinks returned well this year but would of went out to sea in 2018.

[CohoJake]

check the numbers at Reiter & the rest of the Snohomish system.
heard there was only 2 fish back so far and that's why they closed it down.

Yep, 2 fish in Reiter Ponds (Skykomish Hatchery), 5 fish at Tokul Creek hatchery, none reported at Wallace river hatchery, so a total of 7 fish in the entire Snohomish system.  Whitehorse pond hatchery on the Stillaguamish has 6 fish.  Looking at recent past years this is about 10% or less of a normal return. Looks like extremely poor ocean conditions for steelhead across the board. 1% survival?  Maybe.

With all the social media I even heard second or third hand of a steelhead caught on the Vedder by now . . . wow.

[pwn50m3 f15h3r]

I may be wrong I just heard most steelhead runs were closed due to lack of fishp

Island rivers were closed in the summer mainly due to low water (little rainfall in March) in order to protect steelhead in high temp conditions

[wildmanyeah]

With all the social media I even heard second or third hand of a steelhead caught on the Vedder by now . . . wow.

Same have not heard of any caught, usually hear of a few the week or two before boxing day. Altho I will add it seems people on social media are starting to promote the march fishery more. Seen quite a few posts of people replying to comments and saying why go out now and get burnt out when you can go out in late feb and march and have way better chances.  "you are just wasting your time if you go out now". Seen lots of those comments

Chilliwack can surprise tho so who knows

[firstlight]

The early fish are what we call lottery fish.
They are few and far between but they are beauties when you do catch one.
Ill take one Chrome early fish over a bunch of late coloured up fish or kelts.

[Robert_G]

The early fish are what we call lottery fish.

That's what we call them now. I've been keeping track since I was a teen of what we caught.
In the early 90s we got one before Halloween. Mid/Late November fish were not common but I wouldn't say they were that rare.
From 2000-2010, I remember only 1 fish the entire month of November, and maybe a half dozen before Boxing day that entire decade.
2010-Present...Zero fish before the new year for me and the majority of the fish I've caught have been March/April.

Its been a downward slide for years.

[Robert_G]

delete please

[Wiseguy]

The last time I caught a December fish was 25 yrs ago.

[hammer]

For local rivers, I used to catch a few fish in the first half of December. Some were really nice fish, thick shouldered. Sometimes, I noticed they had a pink blush on the gill plates, even the does, but glowing chrome bodies. the last fish I caught before Christmas was twenty years ago. ...I have continued to hit a few around the New year, but not nearly as reliably in the last decade. The disappearance of early component sub populations in winter steelhead is fairly well-known. I used to even reliably catch coho at the end of august in a number of rivers and streams, but not for awhile. ....this is not counting known summer stocks like  Capilano.

[stsfisher]

No need to ring the alarm bells yet. Here are my first of the season back to 2011, all other records have been lost 🤔
2011 - December 17th
2012- December 21st
2013 - December 28th
2014 (15)- February 2nd
2015 - December 27th
2016 - December 31st
2017 (18) January 3rd
2018 - December 22nd
2019 - 1 trip in the books no fish yet

Like others have said the early, early fish are are lottery fish. I believe my earliest was is 3rd week of November fish around 2003 but I would never expect fish in any numbers until January.

[GENERAL-SHERMAN]

I agree with the statement wildmanyeah posted about the December burnout. I don't start putting in effort untill January as of the last few seasons.. Looking back from the early 2000s my December steelhead numbers on vedder system were consistently 2-5 fish hooked usually averaging 3.typically i would see the first fish between the 5th and the 11th of December. the fish would always show up numbers in the first week or so of January and my numbers would consistently be around 20-30 fish hooked fishing weekends in the month of January. Since about 2013-2014 to present Iv noticed the fishery seriously become a struggle for some. I still manage a fish maybe 2 in December and it's deffinetly a grind now. Even the January numbers are down largely I believe to the influx of fishermen on the vedder system . The urbanization around the lower has been the real killer imo. Before the peach road development a typical steelhead day fishing the crossing to lickman  one would expect to encounter maybe 5-10 other fishermen through those stretches all day. Now look at today...the numbers of anglers  on a weekend would probably be 30-40 maybe even more anglers on a typical late December/January day through those same stretches . Fishing trends will continue downward. The ability of average steelhead anglers has improved 2-3 fold. Add that to daily fishing water condition updates online ,water graphs,local tackle shops reports,web cams,river access,Facebook/Instagram heros, and even rafts accessing harder to reach areas the river is getting no down time pressure wise. It's always going to be a grind from here on out early season so get used to it.