Fishing with Rod Discussion Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

Author Topic: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices  (Read 75237 times)

SilverChaser

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 178
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #210 on: August 10, 2018, 09:59:12 AM »

Sure - but if that rock was placed there by the Municipality to ward off ATV traffic to the area then wouldn't your actions to remove that rock be a form vandalism and you would be subject to a criminal charge, fine or served invoice for the replacement cost? Just wondering and not specifically calling you out but using "you" as whomever was involved with the removal (if it ever happened)?
Cleared or not, one still wouldn't be able to get an ATV thru
Logged
Freestone Fly Co Ambassador
Halieus Outdoors Team Member

sockeyed

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 68
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #211 on: August 10, 2018, 11:26:21 AM »

Amazing to look at the Misson Hydro-acoustic numbers. Sockeye passing was 60,000 to 100,000 before the commercial opening. Now only 8000 passed yesterday. Discouraging to say the least.


01-Aug    108,400
02-Aug    146,400
03-Aug    115,900
04-Aug    83,700
05-Aug    66,700
06-Aug    57,300
07-Aug    63,200
08-Aug    37,000
09-Aug    8,000
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 12:07:56 PM by sockeyed »
Logged

ynot

  • Old Timer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 560
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #212 on: August 10, 2018, 11:29:51 AM »

would the Municipality  of hope pile up sharp rocks with a rusty old bed mixed in, sounds like locals did it.and no notice posted.
Logged

Rieber

  • Old Timer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1441
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #213 on: August 10, 2018, 12:06:31 PM »

Amazing to see look at the Misson Hydro-acoustic numbers. Sockeye passing was 60,000 to 100,000 before the commercial opening. Now only 8000 passed yesterday. Discouraging to say the least.


01-Aug    108,400
02-Aug    146,400
03-Aug    115,900
04-Aug    83,700
05-Aug    66,700
06-Aug    57,300
07-Aug    63,200
08-Aug    37,000
09-Aug    8,000

Didn't the notice say the majority of the fish have passed through and this is why the opening were scheduled when they were? Once the commercial openings begin you would expect the numbers to dramatically drop but you would also expect the amount of sockeye making their way through to start dropping as well. Sure would be interesting to know how many make it past Hope.
Logged

joska

  • Old Timer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 501
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #214 on: August 10, 2018, 02:47:52 PM »

Maybe bring 6 guys and increase your odds  :o ;D ;D ;D
pack the boat tomorrow?
Logged
If you don't like the fish your catching... change the bait!!

Hike_and_fish

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 443
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #215 on: August 10, 2018, 03:05:41 PM »

Looks like a small Tswassen band opening on the weekend and another commercial opening for Wens Area 29 E I believe. Can anyone break down where these sub area a b c and so on are ?
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 03:17:09 PM by Hike_and_fish »
Logged

marshal

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 139
  • Hook Chucker
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #216 on: August 10, 2018, 04:14:57 PM »

Looks like a small Tswassen band opening on the weekend and another commercial opening for Wens Area 29 E I believe. Can anyone break down where these sub area a b c and so on are ?

http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/maps-cartes/salmon-saumon/index-eng.html

Of the ones named, G would be the only one without much impact to this fishery...
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 04:36:03 PM by marshal »
Logged

BBarley

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 276
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #217 on: August 10, 2018, 04:32:56 PM »

So 1.3 million fish last Mission to August 9th, declining test fisheries “due to algae blooms” up around the northern Island, a few good seine catches around the southern end of the Island. What’s the current p50 forecast for the total run now? Have the late run stocks hit the approach areas?

4 years from now when the big cycle yields less than 5 million fish, where will the blame fall? Degrading ocean conditions, high mortality from en route temperature extremes, habitat destruction, nutrient poor lakes?

I hate to speak for breaking the rules, but why do people consciously live by the rules set forth by the DFO? Their management objectives clearly reflect the current status of salmon populations coast wide.......
Logged

Hike_and_fish

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 443
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #219 on: August 10, 2018, 04:40:27 PM »

So 1.3 million fish last Mission to August 9th, declining test fisheries “due to algae blooms” up around the northern Island, a few good seine catches around the southern end of the Island. What’s the current p50 forecast for the total run now? Have the late run stocks hit the approach areas?

4 years from now when the big cycle yields less than 5 million fish, where will the blame fall? Degrading ocean conditions, high mortality from en route temperature extremes, habitat destruction, nutrient poor lakes?

I hate to speak for breaking the rules, but why do people consciously live by the rules set forth by the DFO? Their management objectives clearly reflect the current status of salmon populations coast wide.......

The last statement from DFO explained things clear as mud. Their words clearly recognize the two user groups that harvested the most salmon so far. Now, I'm not getting into why the numbers overall are are falling. That's another discussion for another day.

Quote " Gill net test fishery catches in the Fraser River have declined in recent days largely as a result of the numerous fisheries that have been occurring in the river (commercial and First Nations) ".

Is it my fault because I've harvested 5 fish so far ? Sure a little. But the rec folks take a flash in the pan compared to those two user groups outlined in the last statement.

Also, they state the run size estimate has not changed.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 04:42:39 PM by Hike_and_fish »
Logged

marshal

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 139
  • Hook Chucker
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #220 on: August 10, 2018, 05:38:46 PM »

From FN 0597 (July 13):

"...To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
8,423,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above
22,937,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal
chance of a higher or lower return) of 13,981,000 fish for all management
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 13.7 million. The largest
contributing stocks for the 2018 return are expected to be the Late Shuswap,
Chilko, Quesnel, and Early Shuswap...."

From today's updates:
"...Currently the Early Summer group is tracking below the p50 forecast of 2,155,000...."
"... Assessments for the Summer-run group are ongoing and are looking as large as or larger than the p50 forecast of 4,344,000...."

« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 06:37:28 PM by marshal »
Logged

RalphH

  • Old Timer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2640
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #221 on: August 10, 2018, 05:45:58 PM »

It's normal that catch number will drop after some days of sustained fishing. Commercial fishing have been going on in the river and in US waters through the week if FN fishing with allowance for sales is included. Usually within 2 days or so number will rise provided there are no further fisheries of any significance. 

The vast majoirty of the Fraser sockeye are caught in areas 13, 20 and 29 plus US waters from Point Roberts south and west to the San Juan Islands.

As far as what the P50 forecast is - it is still about 14 million. The early Stuart run isn't big enough to make a difference. The early Summer run is lower than expected. They haven't fully assessed the summer run & while it looks to be better than the P50 they usually wait to adopt a new forecast until it's believed most of the fish are off the Fraser mouth or in the river.

The late run fish don't usually show in numbers until the last half of August.

So far this year it is the 1st return since 2014 that has shown to be better than the P50 forecast and in most cases it was much lower. If you look you can find the escapement reports for '15, '16 and '17 on the PSC site.

Exactly what does " ...why do people consciously live by the rules set forth by the DFO?"  mean.
Logged
...even the hero gets a bullet in the chest...

wildmanyeah

  • Old Timer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1027
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #222 on: August 10, 2018, 06:00:24 PM »

Commercial and First Nations catch so has been about a million sockeye

https://www.psc.org/download/580/2018/11296/august-10-2018-2.pdf
Logged

RalphH

  • Old Timer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2640
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #223 on: August 10, 2018, 06:04:35 PM »

Commercial and First Nations catch so has been about a million sockeye

https://www.psc.org/download/580/2018/11296/august-10-2018-2.pdf

half of that has been caught by US fishermen.
Logged
...even the hero gets a bullet in the chest...

wildmanyeah

  • Old Timer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1027
Re: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices
« Reply #224 on: August 10, 2018, 06:45:25 PM »

Yeah low diversion rate, USA  will get a bunch this year. Must be colder outside waters
Logged