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[RalphH]

What was the run size in 2015, something like 6 or 7 million? Maybe someone has a reliable link to some historical numbers from previous runs for comparison.

the final estimate was about 6.2 million.  The estimate for '13 was 26+ million. The 20 years average was around 14 million. Estimates are based on test fisheries in San Juan Strait and Queen Charlotte Strait before they are subject to much commercial netting.

These are estimates of the total run not the escapement; fish that actually make into the river to spawn. Despite the low return in '15 there was a commercial seine fishery at the mouth. In '13 the commercial fishery was quite heavy.

[DanL]

I just found this chart from:

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/ScR-RS/2017/2017_016-eng.pdf

PRE-SEASON RUN SIZE FORECASTS FOR FRASER RIVER SOCKEYE (ONCORHYNCHUS NERKA) AND PINK (O. GORBUSCHA) SALMON IN 2017



Doesnt have the actual numbers but looks around  5-6 million in 2015 which is consistent with what RalphH posted.

[wildmanyeah]

I love science, you guys are the best! thanks for the link!

[Easywater]

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/ScR-RS/2017/2017_016-eng.pdf

From the link:

The total 2017 forecast of Fraser Pink Salmon ranges from 4 million to 16 million at the 10% and 90% probability-levels, with a median (50% probability level) forecast of 8.7 million. This median forecast is below average (12.4 million).

Might even be better than 2015.

[RalphH]

From the link:

The total 2017 forecast of Fraser Pink Salmon ranges from 4 million to 16 million at the 10% and 90% probability-levels, with a median (50% probability level) forecast of 8.7 million. This median forecast is below average (12.4 million).

Might even be better than 2015.

the working estimate is now 4.8 million so they have dropped it by close to half based on test fisheries up to Aug 27th.

see: http://www.psc.org/publications/fraser-panel-in-season-information/fraser-river-panel-regulatory-announcements/

select Aug 28th

[danielk]

Well on my lunch break today seen a school of them jumping around by knight street bridge it was good to see.   

[Tangles]

I'll be trying for some pikeminnows and steelhead tomorrow, you never know..it's the Fraser 

[fic]

I'll be trying for some pikeminnows and steelhead tomorrow, you never know..it's the Fraser 

No Pink, Orange, nor Red spoons allowed

[sockeyed]

No Pink, Orange, nor Red spoons allowed

Pike minnows love pink spoons.

[poper]

Lol, was out stergy fishing tonight and saw 4-5 guys bar fishing above the vedder,maybe they were stergy fishing, but looked funny with the bells on

[sockeyed]

A nice spike in area 12 test numbers, 2136 sockeye and 3698 pinks.


http://www.psc.org/TestFish/Area12PSsummary.PDF

[RalphH]

That's a good sign. The Area 20 tests jumped up a bit as well. Hopefully this is the peak of the run that usually moves through both points at the end of August. If we see either a few more days of such number or better a continued jump we might yet get much better than 4.8 million.

Cross your fingers!

[Easywater]

There was also a big jump in the Area 7 (US) test fishery on Aug 20.

No boats out since then, however.

Not sure how they have 0 boats and 2 sets, though.

[RalphH]

Latest test fishing graphs updated.

Not sure how they have 0 boats and 2 sets, though.

reef net test fishery?

[Easywater]

Looking at the list a little closer, it appears that the American test fishery doesn't record the boat - only the set numbers.