There was another announcement by the PSC today - the interesting part is in italics:
The Fraser River Panel met today to receive assessments from the Pacific Salmon Commission
staff on the status of the Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon runs. Test fishing catches of Fraser
sockeye have remained far below expectations over the past several days. The extremely low abundance
of four year-old Early Summer-run and Summer-run Fraser sockeye to-date has prevented the
commencement of commercial fisheries that were scheduled during pre-season planning. The diversion
rate of Fraser River sockeye through Johnstone Strait is currently estimated to be 50%. There has been
steady escapement of Fraser River sockeye past Mission and Hells Gate over the past week although it
has still been well below expectations.
At the Panel meeting on August 11, the run size estimate for Early Summer-run sockeye of
150,000 fish was increased to 175,000 fish, with 50% migration timing through Area 20 of July 30, which
is four days later than expected. At the meeting today this run size estimate was unchanged. The
estimated escapement of Early Summer-run sockeye past Mission through August 13 is approximately
127,000 fish.
At the meeting on August 11, the Panel adopted a run size estimate of 600,000 Summer-run
sockeye; with 50% migration timing through Area 20 of August 4, which is one day earlier than expected.
At the meeting today this run size estimate was unchanged. The estimated escapement of Summer-run
sockeye past Mission through August 13 is approximately 344,000 fish.
The reason(s) for the very low returns of most Fraser sockeye stocks to-date this season are
presently unknown. However, some potential factors can be rejected. First, the spawning escapement in
the parent year (2005) of four year old Fraser sockeye was 3,300,000 fish; more than 1,000,000 fish
greater than the average escapement on this cycle. There has been no commercial harvest of Fraser River
sockeye this year and the total catch (from First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries and test
fisheries used to assess the return) to-date is only 47,000 fish. Thus, overfishing and insufficient
escapement can be ruled out as large numbers of sockeye reached their spawning areas in 2005 and only a
small fraction of the total Fraser sockeye run has been harvested in 2009. Second, freshwater survival
(egg-to-fry or smolt stage) was not a contributing factor in either the Chilko or Quesnel sockeye stocks
which were forecast to produce 7,750,000 fish (approximately 75%) of the 10,488,000 total adult Fraser
River sockeye forecast in 2009. Fry abundances measured through acoustic surveys in Quesnel Lake
(52,000,000 fry) were only slightly below average for the cycle (58,000,000 fry) and the smolt
outmigration estimated through an enumeration fence at the outlet of Chilko Lake (77,000,000 smolts)
was nearly double the previous highest outmigration (40,000,000 smolts) in the 50 year time series.
Third, the warmer than average Fraser River water temperatures in 2009 are also not a factor in the low
return of adults in 2009 because the in-season estimates of Fraser sockeye abundance are generated from
a combination of marine-area test fisheries and lower Fraser River hydro-acoustic surveys and both of
these assessment tools have provided consistent data indicating very low Fraser sockeye abundances.
The above factors, coupled with the poor returns across most of the Fraser River sockeye stocks
suggests that some factors in marine areas sometime between the time of ocean entry of the smolts in late
spring and summer of 2007 and the adult return in 2009 as potential causal factors. Although there have
been some preliminary discussions with experts that conduct research on juvenile sockeye in the ocean,
the current fisheries management focus remains on in-season assessments of the remaining migration of
Fraser sockeye salmon (primarily Late-run stocks) and pink salmon which are expected to peak over the
next few weeks. These assessments along with assessments of other salmon returns along the Pacific
coast are needed to help focus future investigations into potential causal factors for the very low Fraser
sockeye returns being observed.Recent DNA analyses indicate that the proportion of Late-run sockeye in the marine approach
areas is increasing. A run size estimate of 125,000 Harrison Late-run sockeye (nearly double their 50%
probability level forecast of 69,000 fish) was approved at the Panel meeting on August 11, with peak
Area 20 marine timing of August 4, which is one day later than expected. At the meeting today, the run
size estimate of Harrison sockeye was increased to 150,000 fish, which is close to their 25% probability
level forecast of 160,000 fish. The estimated peak marine timing of Harrison sockeye through Area 20 is
August 4, which is one day later than expected. Thus far this season, Harrison sockeye are unique in that
they are the only Fraser sockeye stock that appears to be returning in higher than their forecast level of
abundance, which may be associated with their different life history and marine migratory behavior
relative to other Fraser sockeye stocks. It is too early to provide an assessment on the run size of
Birkenhead and non-Harrison Late-run sockeye, however, if they are near their forecast level of
abundance, their 50% marine timing through Area 20 would have to be several days later than expected.
Recent DNA analyses indicate that True Late-run sockeye are exhibiting little marine-area delay prior to
entering the Fraser River. The estimated escapement of True Late-run sockeye past Mission through
August 13 is approximately 118,000 fish.
Now, lets look at the possible reasons for the low returns.As DFO says "
The above factors, coupled with the poor returns across most of the Fraser River sockeye stocks
suggests that some factors in marine areas sometime between the time of ocean entry of the smolts in late
spring and summer of 2007 and the adult return in 2009 as potential causal factors."
Ocean conditions - not applicable because Chinook, Coho and other area Sockeye returns are good - they all swim in the same ocean.
Smolt escapement - not applicable because there was a huge number of smolts in the parent year.
That really only leaves the fish farm issue.
I wll be writing letters to my MP (Nina Grewal) in the next few days to outline my thoughts on this.
My MP has the Fraser River in her riding and has already expressed issues with problems on the river.
I will also be sending a letter to the Minister in charge of DFO (Gail Shae).
In the defence of DFO, they really had no chance to get things right because their initial information showed a good return and you can't tell until they actually arrive (or don't arrive). I do blame DFO for letting the BC Provincial govt having free reign with the fish farms - the oceans are a federal jurisdiction.
Go to this website to find out who your MP is:
http://webinfo.parl.gc.ca/MembersOfParliament/MainMPsAddressList.aspx?TimePeriod=Current&Language=E
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Topic: 2009 Fraser River sockeye updates (Read 85256 times)