Fishing with Rod Discussion Forum
Fishing in British Columbia => General Discussion => Topic started by: RalphH on January 11, 2023, 10:13:28 PM
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https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/snow-pack-bc-below-normal
"For B.C.’s South Coast the snow pack is 70 per cent of normal — down 36 per cent from last year — while on Vancouver Island, it’s at 62 per cent of normal, and Upper Fraser West is the lowest in the province at 50 per cent of normal."
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about on time for the doom and gloom EARLY snowpack reports
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Quite a bit early to speculate on these things. Flipping a coin at this time would give you similar odds to predicting snow pack months from now.
Worse case scenario we cover the snow in mylar for the spring/summer season.
We are pretty blessed having the reservoirs above the Lower Mainland.
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Glad i am not the only one that noticed this :P While its still early, if things don't change, we might be in for another hot and very dry summer. :(
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True about it being early but the first half of the season is the most important part. Drought also depends on the kind of spring and summer we get. If we get a wet late spring or moist cool summer we'd be ok.
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Well, Grouse mountain just got 25cm of new snow, with lots more in the forecast.
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Can be 120% of normal within a week. Getting excited way too early. Warm and dry down here till the end of October last year so it will be cold and wet till the end of May in 2023.
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Comparing Grouse snowfall plus snow making added the base on the plateau is about 200cm. About 2/3 of the snow fall has melted or compacted. The last 7 days has seen 41cm of new snow
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I don't predict the snowpack until the time change in March. By then we can get a pretty good idea where we are at.
On Jan 11th.....predicting the final snow pack is like throwing darts in the dark.
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You predict the snowpack? ROTFLMAO!
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You predict the snowpack? ROTFLMAO!
What are you laughing about? Predicting the final snow pack early March is usually pretty easy.
You're the one posting doom and gloom with over 2 months of winter left.
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Predicting anything when it's over is dead easy. That's what's so funny!
I didn't predict anything. I just provided a link to the report. The report does 't predict anything either. It's just about the current numbers and how they stack up relative to 'average'.
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Predicting anything when it's over is dead easy. That's what's so funny!
Anything can happen after March 12th. There have been several years when over half the snowpack accumulates from early March until mid April.
I didn't predict anything. I just provided a link to the report. The report does 't predict anything either. It's just about the current numbers and how they stack up relative to 'average'.
You posted a Jan12th article that was warning of the possibility of drought for this upcoming summer. All I'm saying is the all the mainstream news will always go out of their way to put if fear into the masses for no reason.
Like I said....the time change in March is a much more responsible time to start giving warnings (if necessary) the upcoming water situation....Not Jan 12th
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Anything can happen after March 12th. There have been several years when over half the snowpack accumulates from early March until mid April.
please name at least 7 years where the majority of the snowpack happened after March 12th.
Btw it's not the thickness of the pack that matters, it's the water it holds. As the snow in the first half or so of the season gets compacted it holds more water than it's depth may indicate
You posted a Jan12th article that was warning of the possibility of drought for this upcoming summer.
Warning of a possibility is not a prediction Superbobbyrobbie. I actually put this up because I thought others may be interested particularly since we did experience quite the rise in the freezing level after Jan 1st which is the data set the the JAn 12th report was based on.
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Is it that time of year yet :D
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LOL, Just can't get enough eh WMY?
Here you go:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_jan1.pdf
As of January 1st, the provincial snowpack is slightly below normal,
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LOL, Just can't get enough eh WMY?
Here you go:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_jan1.pdf
i think we got some snowpack!
https://www.theprogress.com/local-news/photos-snowstorm-hits-chilliwack-7297815
(https://www.bpmcdn.com/f/files/shared/feeds/gps/2024/01/web1_240117-cpl-snow-storm-photos_4.jpg)
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I think the next report will be issued in a week or 2. January was a relatively dry month.
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The sky is falling. The sky is falling.
Don't worry. JT will still increase the carbon tax again this spring. Every time he increases it, the weather and climate should improve a little more.
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Just measured 13" on my car here in Wilson Creek and I'm only 1/4 mile from the ocean.
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The sky is falling. The sky is falling.
Don't worry. JT will still increase the carbon tax again this spring. Every time he increases it, the weather and climate should improve a little more.
It's not the sky it's just snow. I'd of thought you heard JT will be out as PM by March 10th. You will feel heart sick & lost for a week or so but back to normal soon after.
measured 13" on my car here in Wilson Creek
two inches here. Most of the snow has fallen on the East Coast of the Island south of Nanaimo
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLlv_aZjHXc&ab_channel=TheFullMontyPython
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Lower than average. higher than last year:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_feb1.pdf
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It’s a curious combination (that I don’t understand, yet) of topography and weather patterns that causes the little Skagit basin to have significantly lower snowfall than the two basins (Similkameen and Lower Fraser) that surround it.
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There is no need to panic...
Trump has water he will sell...
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It’s a curious combination (that I don’t understand, yet) of topography and weather patterns that causes the little Skagit basin to have significantly lower snowfall than the two basins (Similkameen and Lower Fraser) that surround it.
our region is well known for its micro-climates.
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Latest report as of March 1st is available.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_mar1.pdf
Brief Provincial summary is at 73% of average so generally around 70%. The Skagit watershed is at 27% which is not good. Higher than last year which was 66%.
Low probability of serious flooding during the coming spring freshet.
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Latest report as of March 1st is available.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_mar1.pdf
Brief Provincial summary is at 73% of average so generally around 70%. The Skagit watershed is at 27% which is not good. Higher than last year which was 66%.
Low probability of serious flooding during the coming spring freshet.
March 1st reports are already irrelevant. I'm hearing that in the last week or so that some of the coastal ranges have added 5-8 feet of snow above 4000 feet.
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March 1st reports are already irrelevant. I'm hearing that in the last week or so that some of the coastal ranges have added 5-8 feet of snow above 4000 feet.
Speaking of irrelevant
you realize that the % of average are relative to the time of year and not the total?
As I have mentioned a number of times the most important part of the snowpack is that portion established in the first half of the season.
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Speaking of irrelevant
you realize that the % of average are relative to the time of year and not the total?
As I have mentioned a number of times the most important part of the snowpack is that portion established in the first half of the season.
Snow water equivalent works the same in Dec as it does in April. The only thing that they care about is how much snow water is at the measurement site.
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Again the comparison basis for historical average is different for December than March or April
some consideration of snowfall vs snowpack:
Whistler Snow report:
https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx
https://mtseymour.ca/the-mountain/todays-conditions-hours
The actual snowpack levels on an adjusted seasonal basis have declined since January from 87% of normal to 73% as of March 1st. Late snowpack is the first to melt off and if it makes up a larger than normal % of the pack it means there could be an early loss of the pack causing drought conditions in summer.
"Low snowpack and seasonal runoff forecasts combined with warm seasonal weather forecasts and lingering impacts from ongoing drought are pointing toward elevated drought hazards for this upcoming spring and summer,"
If you look at Fig 3 on pg 6 of the report the SWEs are actually worse than the snowpack data suggests. Most measurement stations actually saw decreased snowpacks vs Feb 1st (pg 5). The Provincial figure is influenced by high snowpacks in Northern BC.
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Again the comparison basis for historical average in different for December than March or April
some consideration of snowfall vs snowpack:
Whistler Snow report:
https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx
https://mtseymour.ca/the-mountain/todays-conditions-hours
The actual snowpack levels on an adjusted seasonal basis have declined since January from 87% of normal to 73% as of March 1st. Late snowpack is the first to melt off and if it makes up a larger than normal % of the pack it means there could be an early loss of the pack causing drought conditions in summer.
If you look at Fig 3 on pg 6 of the report the SWEs are actually worse than the snowpack data suggests. Most measurement stations actually saw decreased snowpacks vs Feb 1st (pg 5). The Provincial figure is influenced by high snowpacks in Northern BC.
I understand that 'snowfall' and 'snowpack' are not the same thing.
What you are failing to realize by your link is that Whistler has received 5 feet of snowfall in the last 7 days. Forecast is for another 5 feet or more of snow in the next 7 days.
10 feet of 'snowfall' is a lot of snow no matter how you shake it. Yes, I get it that we aren't talking about 10 feet of snowpack, but 10 feet of fresh 'snowfall' produces a lot of snow water.
The bottomline is at the rate we are going, the end of the month reports will probably be a lot more positive for the coastal mountains then the March 1st report.
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I don't know where you get your figures but this mornings' Whistler Blackcomb forecast through next Thursday is about 16cm ofd total snowfall which is well below 10 feet. Fact is it is about half a foot. (https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx @ approx 8:30 am date of this post. Note like all forecasts this may change within the hour)
You often say things that are just not credible but are in-credible in the true sense of the word.
Something else you are doing is predict the future and not look at the results. You also do it based on 2nd hand info or one or 2 data points. The snowpack reporting system uses over 90.
How 'bad' is the current situation. Depends on the watershed. Some areas like the Chilcotin (16%) are currently very low. Others are Ok. I'd say about 70% of average isn't that bad. Places like the Island and the Sechelt area can likely manage so that's ok compared to 2 years ago when the Sechelt reservoirs were all but dry.
I don't know how reliable all the regional reports are. For example Boundary had some dry years but this year and last it looks good. However there is only one data collection site in Boundary. From my knowledge of the Region I'd think that actual broad snow cover is more important vs the snowpack on the few relatively high peaks.
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I don't know where you get your figures but this mornings' Whistler Blackcomb forecast through next Thursday is about 16cm ofd total snowfall which is well below 10 feet. Fact is it is about half a foot. (https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx @ approx 8:30 am date of this post. Note like all forecasts this may change within the hour)
You often say things that are just not credible but are in-credible in the true sense of the word.
Something else you are doing is predict the future and not look at the results. You also do it based on 2nd hand info or one or 2 data points. The snowpack reporting system uses over 90.
How 'bad' is the current situation. Depends on the watershed. Some areas like the Chilcotin (16%) are currently very low. Others are Ok. I'd say about 70% of average isn't that bad. Places like the Island and the Sechelt area can likely manage so that's ok compared to 2 years ago when the Sechelt reservoirs were all but dry.
I don't know how reliable all the regional reports are. For example Boundary had some dry years but this year and last it looks good. However there is only one data collection site in Boundary. From my knowledge of the Region I'd think that actual broad snow cover is more important vs the snowpack on the few relatively high peaks.
If you read my posts, you would see that I was talking about the 'coastal ranges'. Anyways....it's not worth arguing with you. I stand by what I said that come March 31, I think the 'coastal range' snowpack will be in better shape then it was on March 1st.
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If you read my posts, you would see that I was talking about the 'coastal ranges'. Anyways....it's not worth arguing with you. I stand by what I said that come March 31, I think the 'coastal range' snowpack will be in better shape then it was on March 1st.
You seem to think everything I write has to do with you. Why is that?
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https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/seasonal/canada-2025-spring-weather-forecast
Our Spring forecast is for a cooler than normal spring until at least May with normal precipitation. This is a very common pattern with a La Nina leaving us.
This sort of weather pattern generally means a DELAYED snow melt for the higher elevations on BC mountains....and quite often brings above normal spring snowfall for mid to high elevations.
At this point, there is no reason to panic as some love to fearmonger their man made climate change delusions.
Unless May and June go super early summer hot, no one needs to lose any sleep over 'what could happen'. That is still many weeks away.
Or maybe your buddy Mark Carney could use our carbon tax dollars to truck in snow from the Arctic to build our snowpack even more.
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Oh now comes the climate change Liberal/Progressive conspiracy tirade.
On the subject of a cool spring, the last 2 at least have been cool and wet. I garden so I have noticed it. Summers have been dry and hot though. We will see what the southern ocean currents bring.
Have a nice day. Cheers!
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Snowpack, climate change, housing and food pricing. Does not matter anymore..
Trump will be here soon and will fix everything.
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Hitler calls out Trump (parody)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNltws-wXdM&ab_channel=HitlerRantsParodies (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNltws-wXdM&ab_channel=HitlerRantsParodies)
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Looks like the mid March snow report had some pretty good increases. they are forecasting a warm spell for the next few days so it should be interesting to see how it holds up until the end of the month.
They are still predicting a slow melt through until at least the end of April. Our winter total will still fall short of normal which is becoming more and more common lately.
Regardless, the sky is not falling, but the climate mongers have been well and alive since they predicted the next ice age back in the 70s. There is no better tool to control the lemmings than fear. Crazy how 100s of millions of people still haven't figured that out yet.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/air-land-water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/river-forecast-centre/snow-survey-water-supply-bulletin/snow-conditions-commentary
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Have a nice day. Cheers!
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/a-300-cm-miracle-the-snow-surge-that-recharged-this-ski-giant-whistler-blackcomb-british-columbia
Look at this Ralphy. It's not all doom and gloom. I told you that March can surprise us with some impressive snowpack increases....especially on a La Nina year.
If these crazy snowfalls keep happening, they may have to go back to telling us that acid rain will start melting the skin off of our bones....can't go one year without some sort of fear mongering for the masses...do you remember when the acid rain harbinger was in the news?
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Here's the official report:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/air-land-water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/river-forecast-centre/snow-survey-water-supply-bulletin/snow-conditions-commentary
It is is quite true that a considerable amount was added to the pack in March though that is not surprising and doesn't contradict anything I posted.
If you look at the graph near the bottom of the report you can see that the Provincial Average for March 31st (the black line at the top of the red portion of the graph) is in the lowest 10th percentile for the accumulated averages since 1988, which is not a good result and really hasn't changed at all in the last couple of months.
Even the Whistler pack (936cm) is low at 85% of the average (1100cm) of the last 20 years which is lower than the Provincial average .
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the Provincial Average for March 31st (the black line at the top of the red portion of the graph) is in the lowest 10th percentile for the accumulated averages since 1988, which is not a good result and really hasn't changed at all in the last couple of months.
1988? Imagine a world that is supposedly 4.6 billion years old and we decide our national and global policies based on only the last 37 years of climate data. Come on Ralphy. You're too smart for that.
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1988? Imagine a world that is supposedly 4.6 billion years old and we decide our national and global policies based on only the last 37 years of climate data. Come on Ralphy. You're too smart for that.
LOL! You're good for a laugh RG.
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here is the regional map for the Province
(https://www.bpmcdn.com/f/files/summerland/2025-04/250417-sum-snow-pack-map.jpg;w=960)
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This time last year, the Skagit region was at 27% of normal and come summertime there was no Ross Lake this side of the 49th. This year the Skagit region is at 22%…
It’s interesting that in 2022, the Skagit region’s “% of normal” was similar to adjacent regions, but in the three years it is a fraction of adjacent regions.
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This time last year, the Skagit region was at 27% of normal and come summertime there was no Ross Lake this side of the 49th. This year the Skagit region is at 22%…
It’s interesting that in 2022, the Skagit region’s “% of normal” was similar to adjacent regions, but in the three years it is a fraction of adjacent regions.
I certainly can't prove it but I have some doubts about the accuracy here....especially with what I bolded in your post. I almost wonder if something in the data has been missed, overlooked, or just contains errors. The way pacific storms come in and bring snowfall to the south coast is almost identical to how it works in the Skagit region. The interior's dry barrier doesn't start until you get to Allison Pass. The Skagit region is entirely west of that and is in the coastal range.
And especially as someone who fishes the Skagit every year.....this doesn't seem right. In all my memory, if the Chilliwack/Vedder was running high on opening day (July 1st), then the Skagit would also be running high on opening day (July 1st).....and as the summers progress into September, the Skagit and the Chilliwack/Vedder are almost identical in going from high to fishable to low water conditions each and every year.
So yeah.....I'm questioning the data.
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The % for each regional is relative to the historical average for each specific region. Some regions such as the Skagit (the smallest watershed region in the Province) and the West Road Chilcotin are notably low compared to their respective historical averages. If you look at the Boundary Region it has the highest % of average for the Province in what is a dry zone. Similarly it was very close to average last year but had dry years with low pack just before. Can't tell you what's up with the Skagit or the others for that matter.
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I certainly can't prove it but I have some doubts about the accuracy here....especially with what I bolded in your post. I almost wonder if something in the data has been missed, overlooked, or just contains errors. The way pacific storms come in and bring snowfall to the south coast is almost identical to how it works in the Skagit region. The interior's dry barrier doesn't start until you get to Allison Pass. The Skagit region is entirely west of that and is in the coastal range.
And especially as someone who fishes the Skagit every year.....this doesn't seem right. In all my memory, if the Chilliwack/Vedder was running high on opening day (July 1st), then the Skagit would also be running high on opening day (July 1st).....and as the summers progress into September, the Skagit and the Chilliwack/Vedder are almost identical in going from high to fishable to low water conditions each and every year.
So yeah.....I'm questioning the data.
It's possible the data is wrong, but I don't think so. And here's why...
I geeked out a little bit and correlated the data from the BC snow surveys https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/air-land-water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/river-forecast-centre/snow-survey-water-supply-bulletin with the data from USGS and the height of the Ross Lake reservoir. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=12175000&legacy=1
My hypothesis/assumption was that there should be a positive correlation between the snow levels in the Skagit watershed and the height of Ross Lake... and there is
For reference, normal Ross Lake elevation varies from 1475 to 1602 feet (above sea level)
Year Ross Lake height (ft). Skagit snow level (% of normal)
2024 1587 27
2023 1584 73
2022 1602 90
2021 1602 116
2020 1602 148
2019 1566 51
2018 1602 150
So if the snow survey data was wrong, I expect that we wouldn't see a relationship between the Ross Lake and the Skagit snow pack but in the years (2019, 2023, 2024) when there is well below normal snowpack, Ross Lake is well below full pool. And in the other years when there is lots snow, Ross Lake is approaching full pool.
Just two sets of data, a rudimentary comparison, and some broad assumptions, but your personal experience on the river notwithstanding, I don't think the data is incorrect.
Additionally, I suspect that the Ross Lake reservoir managers from Seattle Power and Light are monitoring the Skagit snowpack to inform how they manage reservoir. I don't think they would tolerate incorrect data from BC. Just a guess...
Edit: correct a number I had wrong
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It's possible the data is wrong, but I don't think so. And here's why...
I geeked out a little bit and correlated the data from the BC snow surveys https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/air-land-water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/river-forecast-centre/snow-survey-water-supply-bulletin with the data from USGS and the height of the Ross Lake reservoir. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=12175000&legacy=1
My hypothesis/assumption was that there should be a positive correlation between the snow levels in the Skagit watershed and the height of Ross Lake... and there is
For reference, normal Ross Lake elevation varies from 1475 to 1602 feet (above sea level)
Year Ross Lake height (ft). Skagit snow level (% of normal)
2024 1587 27
2023 1584 22
2022 1602 90
2021 1602 116
2020 1602 148
2019 1566 51
2018 1602 150
So if the snow survey data was wrong, I expect that we wouldn't see a relationship between the Ross Lake and the Skagit snow pack but in the years (2019, 2023, 2024) when there is well below normal snowpack, Ross Lake is well below full pool. And in the other years when there is lots snow, Ross Lake is approaching full pool.
Just two sets of data, a rudimentary comparison, and some broad assumptions, but your personal experience on the river notwithstanding, I don't think the data is incorrect.
Additionally, I suspect that the Ross Lake reservoir managers from Seattle Power and Light are monitoring the Skagit snowpack to inform how they manage reservoir. I don't think they would tolerate incorrect data from BC. Just a guess...
The information you provided is probably good, but without the data from Seattle Power and Light on when... and how much drawdown is happening.....the date you provided is incomplete and therefore not fully reliable. You will find with most hydro dams that there isn't always an exact pattern of when they take from the reservoirs or build up the reservoirs. Regardless of snowpack, some months they take more and some months they take less. Then there is also rainfall totals that need to be taken into account as well.
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it's been comparably as low the previous year so without any other evidence it doesn't make sense top dismiss the reading as wrong .