Fishing with Rod Discussion Forum
Fishing in British Columbia => General Discussion => Topic started by: Dude on March 07, 2014, 08:12:14 PM
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I couldn't think anything but to post this right after reading this article. I know..... I know its only march but it sure looks promising. Can you imagine 72 million Sockeye in the fraser river. What ever the number be , but it sure does excite me ;D
Here is thr article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/anticipated-salmon-run-could-overwhelm-fraser-river-this-summer-experts-say/article17336330/
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lets cross are fingers, especially after the last few years of returns.
"The forecast ranges from a low of 7.3 million to a high of 72.5 million."
hopefully its closer to the high point than the low point.
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The point estimate is 23M. That would be the ballpark I would expect.
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This could be bad news for runs of other species that enter at the same time as the big runs of sockeye.
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This could be bad news for runs of other species that enter at the same time as the big runs of sockeye.
Agree firebird. Early Chilliwack coho and Cultus sockeye are but two. My guess is you could add a few more ;)
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It will be funny comes summer and only a small fraction shows up.
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That would be bad for the socks themselves.The rivers were stuffed at less than half that in 2010.Only so many redds to go around.
Sure would be busy on the Fraser.
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Agree firebird. Early Chilliwack coho and Cultus sockeye are but two. My guess is you could add a few more ;)
I'm thinking most about threats to coastal and interior summer run steelhead but there are no doubt many sensitive salmon stocks at risk as well. Stocks with returns numbering in the dozens to couple of hundreds could be wiped out by non-selective commercial and First Nations fisheries and poor handling and non-compliance practices of sport fisheries. If all commercial, First Nations and sport fishers followed the appropriate guidelines to minimize impacts to non-target species, there would probably be no concerns. We're not quite there yet :(
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That model's based on sockeye smolt outmigration. Apparently, very few oceanic condition parameters are included in the model. Theres a 65 million fish gap between the upper and lower limits, that gap itself is bigger than any run on record. To say the goalposts are far apart doesn't quite capture it. Given that we don't have a single definitive answer why the 2009 sockeye collapse occurred, and that the Cohen Commission report was largely disregarded, don't celebrate yet, we have no idea what will actually happen. Predictions of sockeye returns are about as reliable as apocalypse predictions.
If there is in fact a huge return, the ensuing harvest will probably intercept many threatened interior summer run, coho stocks etc. Also, because the "Fraser sockeye run" is composed of many different components from different rivers the big harvest could hit an individual run hard. Example, an opening takes 1% of the "Fraser sockeye run", but of that 1% might be made up of, say, 75% of the Bowron River sockeye run because they happened to run when the river was bank-to-bank nets during one of the openings.
On the other hand, if the run is average, but the commercial boats have already invested a tonne of money into what they anticipated to be another 2010, then theres going to be a tonne of pressure to keep the fishery open longer than the data suggests it should be left open...
Also, the Fraser flossing fishery was/is/will be a disaster, more dickheads flossing everywhere all over the LML.
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the bigger the run the bigger the commercial opening, look at the pinks this year. not like theyll open it for us anyways ::)
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Im just going to say. I seriously doubt the accuracy of this prediction... the fish haven't even started back from around the island yet...
Though I am concerned with the weather conditions that we have had the past few years. this to me just means a bad thing might be comming. The water was so warm this last year fish were just dieing at hells gate. thousand of silver chrome sockeye just floated by me and my friend last year... if this is going to be even half of the prediction then we might have million fish float by this year. I just hope the water temp stays cool and we get an average rain fall this summer, not the 4 months
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So when would be the peak period for the return of this species? I'm guessing around June/July.
Can someone shed more light of the timing thanks.
I'm planning a trip there this year and currently it's for sep/oct. But I can move it forward if needs to be.
Thanks
Wayne
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Around 2nd week of August to first week of Sept., don't forget that's the approximate run not the opening for fishing. Dfo decides the openings.
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http://commonsensecanadian.ca/missing-fish-farms-offer-clue-anticipated-70-million-sockeye-return/
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http://commonsensecanadian.ca/missing-fish-farms-offer-clue-anticipated-70-million-sockeye-return/
;D ;D ;D nuf said
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http://commonsensecanadian.ca/missing-fish-farms-offer-clue-anticipated-70-million-sockeye-return/
Oh. Em. Gee.
Not sure where to begin with that article. Let's just say that DC should leave the forecasting to those who get paid to do it. So many inaccuracies in that article I can't even start.
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Fed Fish doesn't have a clue what is going on in our oceans, so why would anyone else? Nor, does Fed Fish even CARE what happens to wild populations of salmon and steelhead. They have one mandate and that is to promote salt water fish farms. Everything else is just window dressing for the media. It has been obvious since day one. Fed Fish gets its orders from current political parties who get their instructions from whatever big business operation is greasing their wheels. If you think otherwise you are blind. Fed Fish spent 60 years destroying the east coast fishery and when that was done they startedd on the west coast. The results have been obvious to even a blind man. But, because you can't actually SEE under the ocean surface then it's a case of out of sight, out of mind. The apathetic public just sees its next handout.
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Fed Fish doesn't have a clue what is going on in our oceans, so why would anyone else? Nor, does Fed Fish even CARE what happens to wild populations of salmon and steelhead. They have one mandate and that is to promote salt water fish farms. Everything else is just window dressing for the media. It has been obvious since day one. Fed Fish gets its orders from current political parties who get their instructions from whatever big business operation is greasing their wheels. If you think otherwise you are blind. Fed Fish spent 60 years destroying the east coast fishery and when that was done they startedd on the west coast. The results have been obvious to even a blind man. But, because you can't actually SEE under the ocean surface then it's a case of out of sight, out of mind. The apathetic public just sees its next handout.
So true and so sad too. Our generation Ian, were the last to see wild fish as they should be and could still be with proper management. It always amazes me there still is people that defend ocean located fish farms, there is even some on this forum. :-X
Makes a person want to move to Thailand. ;D ;D
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Yeah, no fish (and shrimp) farms in Thailand to worry about...
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It always amazes me there still is people that defend ocean located fish farms, there is even some on this forum. :-X
You're not fishing deep enough ;D
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So true and so sad too. Our generation Ian, were the last to see wild fish as they should be and could still be with proper management. It always amazes me there still is people that defend ocean located fish farms, there is even some on this forum. :-X
Makes a person want to move to Thailand. ;D ;D
Did my generation miss 2010?
My beef with DC's article has nothing to do with farms, it's the very inaccurate statements he makes speculating on what we "should" see for returns next year. Anyways, the Fraser sockeye forecast has more than its share of warts. It boggles my mind the amount of money and resources that go into providing the data to generate a forecast of 7-72 million. Yes, the way forecasts are generated with statistics means there is a probability distribution, but to report that range to the media is embarrassing. I heard Global BC in one day report the forecast as 70 million (the morning news) and then later from 23-70 million (the 6 o'clock), neither of which is correct. Can't blame them though, the message is completely unclear. For the record, the point forecast is 23M, with a range of 7-72 (80% I believe??).
One other point of clarification. The way the Fraser sockeye fishery is managed differs from other Southern BC fisheries, in that it isn't directly managed by DFO. THe Fraser River Panel of the Pacific Salmon Commission manages the in-season openings/closures. DFO is heavily represented on the panel and tech committee, as are First Nations, Americans, commercial fishing interests, and sport fishing interests (formerly by the late great Tom Bird).