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[cutthroat22]

Wonder what God would say about Trump's loss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blCx1GAaV20

[big_fish]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blCx1GAaV20

I might be wrong, but i think I saw Robert g and aboater in the audience..... 😆

[Roderick]

"Latest modelling shows COVID-19 cases in B.C. doubling every 13 days"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/latest-modelling-shows-covid-19-cases-in-b-c-doubling-every-13-days-1.5799829


'nuf said

[clarki]

My dude, no, it’s not enuff.

While cases doubling every 13 days is indeed serious and very concerning, it still is not an exponential increase.

Doubling every 13 days describes a linear equation, not a exponential equation.
An equation with 2x operates much differently than an equation with x squared.
Doubling every 13 days will graph as straight line, albeit a line with a steep slope, but still a straight line.

We can debate linear vs exponential ‘til the cows come home, but I think we can both agree that the rate of infections is concerning and everyone needs to pay heed to Dr Bonnie.

‘Nuff said 😀

[bobby b]

Um ,,, no ... the cows have come home and they say you are incorrect.

doubling every 13 days is exponential NOT Linear . It may have been linear for a time but we are well on track for and exponential rise in cases

 
lets say ... up to 300 cases was slow ( linear in form ) then uncontrolled spread leads to doubling every 13 days ...lets call that point day 1 of the exponential rise

day 1    = 300  (cases)
day 14  = 600
day 27  = 1200
day 40  = 2400
day 53  = 4800
day 66  = 9600
day 79  = 19200

do you see the log...

This is exponential growth with a base of 2

see the graph in figure 1 in this link ... doubling with equal periods of time

https://www.nsta.org/science-teacher/science-teacher-julyaugust-2020/exponential-growth-and-doubling-time

Nuff said?

[clarki]

The cows came home, and am wrong! To quote Barbie, “Math is hard” 😀

Doubling is indeed exponential. I had to dig deep into my high school class of Functions and Relations and a bit of googling, and your prompt of the base of 2, to be reminded of f(x)=2^x

Thanks for not calling me a pompous dumb my friend (although I would deserve it!)

[bobby b]

Doubling every 13 days will graph as straight line, albeit a line with a steep slope, but still a straight line.

No ,,,,no it won't, have you tried it?

This answer would get you a zero on one of my exams btw....  .


4800                                                 4800
4500
4200
3900
3600
3300
3000
2700
2400                                    2400
2100
1800
1500
1200                         1200
900                     
600                600
300   day1       14.        27        40.       53.       66.       79

[bobby b]

LOL... no I would not call you pompous dumb. All is good

[clarki]

LOL... no I would not call you pompous dumb. All is good

Hah, my “dumb my buddy” autocorrected as  “dumb my friend” 😀

Yup, good thing I’m not in your math class, Mr. B!

[clarki]

Hah, my “dumb my buddy” autocorrected as  “dumb my friend” 😀

Yup, good thing I’m not in your math class, Mr. B!

Shoot, this software is too smart for me. I thought I would get clever and type it out as ampersand-s-s and it substituted “my buddy” this time.

This has not been my night!

[RalphH]

The cows came home, and am wrong! To quote Barbie, “Math is hard” 😀

Doubling is indeed exponential. I had to dig deep into my high school class of Functions and Relations and a bit of googling, and your prompt of the base of 2, to be reminded of f(x)=2^x

Thanks for not calling me a pompous dumb my friend (although I would deserve it!)

what's x in this case?

[RalphH]

I think a lot of this question depends on where you set the start of the curve and the scale.

If you go to https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989e3cda29297ded

there are 2 graphs at the bottom one for the Province and one for the Health Region (Fraser for me) which may be  determined by your IP. If you use the sliders at the tops of each graph and restrict the dates from Oct 13 to Nov 11 it doesn't look very much like a exponential curve. If you toggle to full screen (top right corner of the Health Region graph) it looks more like an exponential.

Consider too that the case doubling every 13 days is based on whatever model of virus spread PHO office is using and models are predictive but are not actual growth. If you look back from Nov 11 there will be no doubling every 13 days - ie for the Province Oct 26th is 306 news cases, Nov 5th is 564 which is somewhat short of doubling. That being said the model does say we are on a path of exponential growth.

[Roderick]

Yes it's definitely doubling faster now then it was in October.  Hopefully this partial lockdown will slow it down. If not, we can expect a full lockdown shortly because the number of ventilators don't double every couple of weeks. 

[clarki]

what's x in this case?

x would represent the number of 13 day intervals.
Day 1 f(0)
Day 14 f(1)
Day 27 f(2)

[Knnn]

While cases are climbing it is reassuring to see that the case to fatality ratio, i.e. the number of deaths compared to cases, across the world is declining.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMGVjYjhkMjMtMzhjMy00OWRkLWJlNWItNjM0NzI0NjhiNTlkIiwidCI6IjlkZWYwNTBlLTExMDUtNDk1ZC1iNzUzLWRhOGRiZTc5MGVmNyJ9