Fishing with Rod Discussion Forum
Fishing in British Columbia => General Discussion => Topic started by: Rieber on January 12, 2017, 10:39:33 AM
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Will we have an opportunity to harvest Sockeye from the Fraser River this year?
Any rumors or threats of an opening for Recreational fishermen?
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the "big year" run isn't until next year. Haven't heard any rumors or anything about this year yet...
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Really? A sockeye flossing discussion on January 12th?
Give it a rest for 6 months.
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Really? A sockeye flossing discussion on January 12th?
Give it a rest for 6 months.
Why give it a rest? You were obviously interested since you read and replied. ::)
I was actually thinking about Vacation time and wondering to myself if I should even bother booking a few days for an anticipated Sockeye opening.
But anyways, if the big run is next year then the discussion will be pretty much over before it even gets started.
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The forum has been dead lately, with the holiday season and more limited fishing options things can be slow these days. Whats the big deal about a thread that talks about the upcoming season?
Bring on the spring and summer! Going to get the Kayak in the water a lot more this year and looking forward to hitting some pinks from the Yak. IF there are catchable sockeye, all the better. I will spend some time at the mouth of the fraser from the tinny to get them in the chuck.
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So very sad...
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^^^ x2
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I believe "side drifting" is the preferred nomenclature, Dude.
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If they open it - that will be a good sign. If they don't, it's understood why.
If they do open, I wonder how the regulation will read? "Until further notice, long leaders can be used?" or "Selective fishing will temporarily not be enforced?"
I worried about my Sockeye leaders dry rotting on the rolls.
Maybe it will be fly fishing only for Sockeye. #2 Green wool flies on a 10' leader and a 3oz split shot.
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Rieber, you are $hotdisturber 8) I love it!
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All this wonderful sun today sure had me thinking about the good old Sockeye fishing days. :'(
Man, some fresh smoked Sockeye would be a nice treat right now.
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Rieber, you are $hotdisturber 8) I love it!
I give it 100% about 40% of the time.
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Maybe it will be fly fishing only for Sockeye. #2 Green wool flies on a 10' leader and a 3oz split shot.
LOL, once upon a time I quite innocently asked if fly fishermen invented flossing, I think I lost my left nut over that one.
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If we dont let ourselves get too hung up on just the BB/flossing aspect, the health of the sockeye return has implications beyond that one specific fishery, so it's of interest to discuss IMHO. Dont know if this will be of any value to you but on the DFO website there is a section for a scientific advisory board that publishes reports on, among many other topics, pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River sockeye. I'm not involved in this in any way, just stumbled on it while navigating the maze that is the DFO website.
http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/index-eng.htm
Apparently for sockeye, they meet every winter around Dec/Jan and publish a report sometime around Feb/Mar for the upcoming season. It appears to be based primarily on mathematical models and previous returns which presumably then gets refined and updated with test fishery and in-river data whenever that starts around June(?) (don't know if that's exactly how it works, just guessing here). Based on previous years, the earliest guess at the 2017 season might be available in a month or two.
FWIW I believe they forecasted a lower return year in 2016 : Link and PDF for those interested (http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/ScR-RS/2016/2016_021-eng.html)
Unfortunately as we all know, the actual numbers ended up being much worse than predicted after all was said and done and we got one of the lowest returns on record.
They have archived reports going back quite a few years if you are inclined to sift through them and see if forecasts for a particular year at all correlated with previous recreational opportunities. I dont take part in that fishery so I dont know when previous openings took place, not to mention that pre-season forecasts are subject to be highly variable, to say the least.
Man, some fresh smoked Sockeye would be a nice treat right now.
Well, if you must have sockeye that badly, you'll never get skunked at Superstore...
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They have archived reports going back quite a few years if you are inclined to sift through them and see if forecasts for a particular year at all correlated with previous recreational opportunities. I dont take part in that fishery so I dont know when previous openings took place, not to mention that pre-season forecasts are subject to be highly variable, to say the least.
They calculate and predict but it looks like the decision of openings are based on how loud whatever group cries (maybe that's not fair for me to say) but depends on what they are seeing at the Albion test fishery.
Well, if you must have sockeye that badly, you'll never get skunked at Superstore...
I got my 2016 Sockeye at the Abbotsford Safeway.
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...once upon a time I quite innocently asked if fly fishermen invented flossing, I think I lost my left nut over that one.
Well then be thankful you've still got one and be careful what you say. ::)
Sockeye openings are managed by the PSC and they have several test fisheries of all sorts all over the Gulf & Albion actually is not in that mix.
FWIW from what climatologists and the obvious weather outside tells us we've moved from an El Nino to a La Nina Ocean current regime which usually bodes well for most Salmonid species especially sockeye. Will it make a difference this year? We will see.
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I'd pay money to watch Rieber fly fish with a 3oz Betty strapped on.
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They have archived reports going back quite a few years if you are inclined to sift through them and see if forecasts for a particular year at all correlated with previous recreational opportunities.
Replying to my own post, there is a table in the 2016 report that summarizes the pre-season forecasts vs actual returns from 1998-2015:
(http://i.imgur.com/AiMaMqq.gif)
From those 18 years:
8 years where the actual returns were actually somewhat close to the 50% probability forecast, including four straight years from 2011-2014.
2 years where the returns were significantly higher than the preseason forecast including the famous 2010.
8 years where the actual returns were significantly lower than the 50% preseason forecast, including the disastrous 2009 which I believe is what resulted in the Cohen Commission report. 2016 will probably get a red label in the next report as well.
It's interesting to see the 4 year dominant cycle returns of '98, '02, '06, '10, & '14 as I never really paid much attention to it. As someone noted above, the next dominant run is not until 2018.
Gazing into the crystal ball, 2017 returns are from the 2013 brood year which featured ~4-5M fish which appears to be about an average return for a non-dominant year, based on this chart.
Were there any recreational openings back in 2013? or in 2011 which also had a similar sized ~5M return? If not, then you can probably write off the upcoming season unless the forecast is significantly larger, or the returns are unexpectedly high. No comment as to how the openings might be influenced by the various special interest stakeholders.
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There was both sport and recreational openings in 2011 but not in 2013 due to high river temperatures.
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Hmmm - there will likely be no Sockeye for the rec/sport fisherman after the Commercial and Native allowances are made. I still better take that time off - just in case we get lucky.
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You sure like to $/it destarb , good luck flossing , if they do open the season .
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If they do open for Sockeye and don't have a leader restriction then I will use my Fraser drift rod and levelwind but I after getting a few, I would go out later in the opening with my spey. I haven't caught Sockeye on the spey and I really would like to on the next opening. That would be pretty cool.
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Gazing into the crystal ball, 2017 returns are from the 2013 brood year which featured ~4-5M fish which appears to be about an average return for a non-dominant year, based on this chart.
Were there any recreational openings back in 2013? or in 2011 which also had a similar sized ~5M return? If not, then you can probably write off the upcoming season unless the forecast is significantly larger, or the returns are unexpectedly high.
Thanks for introducing some actual data into this thread. I have a love affair with tables full of data; bonus marks for colour-coding!
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Hmmm - there will likely be no Sockeye for the rec/sport fisherman after the Commercial and Native allowances are made. I still better take that time off - just in case we get lucky.
Usually if there is a commercial opening there is a sport opening. Sport openings tend to precede commercial openings by a few days for obvious reasons.
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If they do open for Sockeye and don't have a leader restriction then I will use my Fraser drift rod and levelwind but I after getting a few, I would go out later in the opening with my spey. I haven't caught Sockeye on the spey and I really would like to on the next opening. That would be pretty cool.
Is not fly fishing for sockeye as good as flossing with a drift rod? ;) :P :-X
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Is not fly fishing for sockeye as good as flossing with a drift rod? ;) :P :-X
That's might be true for someone who knows how to use the Spey effectively in big rivers. Big river spey is still really new to me but I would like to experience Fraser Sockeye and Spring on the spey. Then there's the challenge of finding a bar that allows you to fly fish without a bouncer coming in between a couple fly guys. I'm certain a braided line bouncer could bugger a fly line in a hurry.
Meat fishing with the drift rod for Fraser Sockeye - no problem there - as long as we're gifted an opening. Mind you in years past the picking has been pretty slim compared to the gory years. Yes "gory" years. It used to be a blood bath out there with 150+ fishermen on the big bars - all ripping gills every few seconds. Oh the carnage.
Still cheaper to buy the Sockeye at the supermarket by the time you factor all the expenses if you have to travel to the river any distance.
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The square hook pattern I tie is really effective. The sockeye really hammer it when fished properly! Springs like it too!
I named the pattern. The Alaskan Twist. 8)
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I like to buy about 10-12 fish and process them and get out of the way.
Leaves more time for golf. :o
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Looks like bottom bouncing gear is starting to come up for sale in anticipation for early Springs.
https://abbotsford.craigslist.ca/spo/5929745630.html (https://abbotsford.craigslist.ca/spo/5929745630.html)
Local Shop helping the cause. ::)
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hopefully never opens again.
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hopefully never opens again.
That's one way to look at it.
Personally really hope that it does re-open again. That would mean a recovery and abundance of salmon - at least for that cycle.